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Post by missouriboy on Jul 27, 2024 15:30:06 GMT
If the bad news keeps rolling in, a self-fulfilling prophecy may engulf us.  It can't be all birds and butterflies forever. Sooner or later, a Turning will be upon us.  |
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 27, 2024 15:35:59 GMT
I drove over to a Northeast Tulsa Walmart fairly late last night. That Walmart is not in the best area of town. But I wanted to have some transmission fluid to use early this morning, and thought it was the best bet. The place was very, very busy, and the customers were nearly all Mexicans. I walked out of the store at 10:06 pm and the line to check receipts (done in sketchy Walmarts) was 100 feet long. The place was state fair busy. I saw cross words exchanged between a white lady and a Mexican lady who cut in line. Anyway, something is going on, I'd call it an invasion I suppose. Tulsa's official population is grossly undercounted, perhaps by hundreds of thousands. So there you have it. You are the Promised Land ... and they are ALL coming. Uncle Joe saw to that. |
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Post by walnut on Jul 28, 2024 13:11:44 GMT
I drove over to a Northeast Tulsa Walmart fairly late last night. That Walmart is not in the best area of town. But I wanted to have some transmission fluid to use early this morning, and thought it was the best bet. The place was very, very busy, and the customers were nearly all Mexicans. I walked out of the store at 10:06 pm and the line to check receipts (done in sketchy Walmarts) was 100 feet long. The place was state fair busy. I saw cross words exchanged between a white lady and a Mexican lady who cut in line. Anyway, something is going on, I'd call it an invasion I suppose. Tulsa's official population is grossly undercounted, perhaps by hundreds of thousands. So there you have it. You are the Promised Land ... and they are ALL coming. Uncle Joe saw to that. Well here is the end game I see, www.kjrh.com/news/local-news/tulsa-immigrant-community-development-corporation-has-big-plans-for-the-futureThat didn't really take long.. and the $765 filing fee is waived. You are losing your country as we speak, it's happening at this moment. |
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 28, 2024 14:50:15 GMT
All pushed by a committee funded by Federal(? I assume) money which we do not have. All in the name
In colonial days boat loads of European immigrants set to work settling and modifying the landscape to conform to an ethnically modified vision of the Old World culture they had left. (Anglo Saxon in the Northeast and Celtic in the Center-South and other religious mixtures in the Center). The Center-South headed to the Appalachians as fast as they could to get away from the English Slave Lords that they were well-acquainted with. Largely they carved out a new agrarian economy on their own. No real government grants in those days.
The Anglo-Saxon modified (New World Order today) financially supported their westward moving communities to create their vision in the New World. Today they use tax money and credit that isn't theirs. Forgive me for interpreting their motives as actions aimed at a conquest of communities that are not yet theirs. Immigrants are not so different today. Show them the money and their hearts and minds will follow.
"We should have the right to vote and make decisions, not only nationally, but also locally."
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Post by walnut on Jul 28, 2024 21:02:41 GMT
All pushed by a committee funded by Federal(? I assume) money which we do not have. All in the name
In colonial days boat loads of European immigrants set to work settling and modifying the landscape to conform to an ethnically modified vision of the Old World culture they had left. (Anglo Saxon in the Northeast and Celtic in the Center-South and other religious mixtures in the Center). The Center-South headed to the Appalachians as fast as they could to get away from the English Slave Lords that they were well-acquainted with. Largely they carved out a new agrarian economy on their own. No real government grants in those days.
The Anglo-Saxon modified (New World Order today) financially supported their westward moving communities to create their vision in the New World. Today they use tax money and credit that isn't theirs. Forgive me for interpreting their motives as actions aimed at a conquest of communities that are not yet theirs. Immigrants are not so different today. Show them the money and their hearts and minds will follow.
"We should have the right to vote and make decisions, not only nationally, but also locally."
I think it might be another project largely funded by this man, and his foundation: www.forbes.com/profile/george-kaiser/He is 3 times wealthier than Soros, and he largely has controlled Tulsa's direction and style of growth. |
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 29, 2024 13:18:47 GMT
Some day Jeremy will likely be right. When occupies the investor,
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Post by glennkoks on Jul 29, 2024 15:00:37 GMT
There are two people I really like to listen to when it comes to the economy and investing. Warren Buffett and Ray Dalio. Warren Buffett is sitting on a record amount of cash at Berkshire Hathaway. Despite being on record many times as saying that "no-one can time the market" he seems to have high amounts of cash available every time the market tanks and is able to bottom feed better than anyone on earth. Probably due to his strict adherence to the Buffett Indicator. Currently the BI is almost 2 standard deviations above its historical norm.
Ray Dalio has done a lot of research studying historical, geopolitical and economic cycles. He has been very outspoken about our current debt levels.
With that being said both of these guys are missing out on huge gains. Personally I am trying to resist the temptation to jump back in the market due to F.O.M.O.(fear of missing out. I got out of the market because the fundamentals were out of whack. They are still out of wack and I am just sitting on the sidelines waiting for balance to be restored...
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 29, 2024 16:27:26 GMT
There are two people I really like to listen to when it comes to the economy and investing. Warren Buffett and Ray Dalio. Warren Buffett is sitting on a record amount of cash at Berkshire Hathaway. Despite being on record many times as saying that "no-one can time the market" he seems to have high amounts of cash available every time the market tanks and is able to bottom feed better than anyone on earth. Probably due to his strict adherence to the Buffett Indicator. Currently the BI is almost 2 standard deviations above its historical norm. Ray Dalio has done a lot of research studying historical, geopolitical and economic cycles. He has been very outspoken about our current debt levels. With that being said both of these guys are missing out on huge gains. Personally I am trying to resist the temptation to jump back in the market due to F.O.M.O.(fear of missing out. I got out of the market because the fundamentals were out of whack. They are still out of wack and I am just sitting on the sidelines waiting for balance to be restored... Whenever it occurs, balance may be restored (on the downside) dramatically. I am looking for similar instances when that did not occur. I may need to look further as my forte is not economics. But they don't call them cycles for nothing. |
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Post by duwayne on Jul 29, 2024 21:53:23 GMT
I'm going to give away a secret here. This is a key chart I use for making my investment decisions. I've already discussed my general investment philosophy in past posts.
But for reasons you probably understand, I'm not going to give away my exact "model" for pulling the trigger on actual trades.
Since this "The Economy" thread was started back in late 2021, I have listed the trades as I made them. If one invested in these trades (as I did), they would have made a 66% return over the 2.67 years covered, or an annual return of 24% per year. If, on the other hand one had held the S&P 500 over that period (as I did with some of my money), the return would have been 18% overall, or an annual return of 7%. In all cases there would have been an additional annual return from dividends or money market funds when stocks were not held.
Why did I post this? From what I have read here it seems like I am the only one currently holding a significant level of stocks, so I won't ask for advice on selling, but I would be interested to know when, and if, anyone decides to buy stocks at a significant level in the future, and why.
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Post by walnut on Jul 29, 2024 22:47:44 GMT
I am looking forward to buying stocks again, but certainly not any time soon, not at these levels. I have some very good swing trading indicators I use, but I do not believe that there is any useful "get out of Dodge" indicator, no one knows when the next big correction is coming. Timing a bottom to invest is much easier IMO. The penalties for being wrong are much less severe. And I don't listen to pundits. I just don't believe that anyone can predict the future. If they could predict the future, then they don't need to be getting their by-line out for everyone to see. Buffet would say the same thing I believe.
Certain broad patterns dealing with the business cycle repeat pretty reliably over enough time, and that's about as close as we can expect to get.
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Post by ratty on Jul 29, 2024 23:10:52 GMT
I am looking forward to buying stocks again, but certainly not any time soon, not at these levels. I have some very good swing trading indicators I use, but I do not believe that there is any useful "get out of Dodge" indicator, no one knows when the next big correction is coming. Timing a bottom to invest is much easier IMO. The penalties for being wrong are much less severe. And I don't listen to pundits. I just don't believe that anyone can predict the future. If they could predict the future, then they don't need to be getting their by-line out for everyone to see. Buffet would say the same thing I believe. Certain broad patterns dealing with the business cycle repeat pretty reliably over enough time, and that's about as close as we can expect to get. How's your AI-generated code doing? |
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Post by walnut on Jul 29, 2024 23:20:33 GMT
Well in testing for a few weeks, it actually made a nice profit. But I am having a problem, I am having trouble setting up back tests where I feel like the AI model is not looking into the future and cheating on it's automated back-tests based on historical data. So, in spite the very good paper trading test results, I'm not ready to commit real money to it.
Does that make sense? The program turned a $1 million paper trade account into $1,080,000 in about a month. So the actual trading test results were pretty spectacular. But I'm suspicious of those automated back-test results it produced. Two different tests, if you are following what I'm saying.
I am currently trying to write a pairs-trading arbitrage program, I'm actually more excited about this one. Yes once again, the AI is speeding up this process greatly with code trouble shooting and function code generation. Because I like more 'sure thing' trades and just never am comfortable with direction-guessing trading, I'm at the moment more excited about this program than the first one.
By the way, Anthropic Claude has gotten way better at designing and writing code. On the first program, I had to be very involved in writing the actual code, and it took months. Now, Claude is so good that it carries the ball and is very close to being able to think about a concept and write the entire program. Just a few months ago, I said that AI couldn't do that. Well, now it can.
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Post by glennkoks on Jul 29, 2024 23:33:22 GMT
I am looking forward to buying stocks again, but certainly not any time soon, not at these levels. I have some very good swing trading indicators I use, but I do not believe that there is any useful "get out of Dodge" indicator, no one knows when the next big correction is coming. Timing a bottom to invest is much easier IMO. The penalties for being wrong are much less severe. And I don't listen to pundits. I just don't believe that anyone can predict the future. If they could predict the future, then they don't need to be getting their by-line out for everyone to see. Buffet would say the same thing I believe. Certain broad patterns dealing with the business cycle repeat pretty reliably over enough time, and that's about as close as we can expect to get. I have been around long enough to know that few to no-one can beat the S&P 500 over the long haul. Buffett won his now famous one million dollar wager with a highly succesful hedge fund manager a long time ago. That pretty much ended my "stock picking" career. Until 2021 I just invested in broad based index funds and let time work it's magic. I have zero complaints with this strategy as I harvest seafood for a living and don't have the time or intellect to try to prove Mr. Buffett wrong. The "certain broad patterns dealing with the business cycle" that repeat are reliable enough to make a fortune with if you take advantage of them. At some point we will have a correction/recession/depression. That is a fact. If you have the powder dry and enough cash and fortitude to hit the "buy" button when there is blood in the water you can do quite well. I am well positioned to take advantage of the next downturn. And I will... |
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 31, 2024 7:45:45 GMT
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Post by duwayne on Aug 2, 2024 15:18:38 GMT
I sold most of my SPY today at 531. At the beginning of this year, I noted my expectation that the market would likely fall by 10% from the market high at some time during the year. This could be the time.
I made a similar move earlier this year and ended up buying back at a breakeven price. My buy-back on May 3 was at 510 so it was up 4% over that level when I sold today.
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