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Post by blustnmtn on Apr 17, 2024 13:58:43 GMT
The regime has got to do something "cosmetic" to try to prevent gas prices from spiking into election season.
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Post by blustnmtn on Apr 17, 2024 14:10:07 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Apr 17, 2024 16:18:44 GMT
The regime has got to do something "cosmetic" to try to prevent gas prices from spiking into election season. The SPR exists for ONE reason. And keeping prices low is NOT it. This is beyond incompetent or stupid. Some might say it borders(?) on treason.
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Post by Sigurdur on Apr 18, 2024 0:08:09 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Apr 18, 2024 0:34:57 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Apr 18, 2024 13:26:51 GMT
I call this chart "The Immaculate Divergence". The Old Hedge re-emerges in staged surge increments. Next stop $3000?
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Post by walnut on Apr 18, 2024 17:37:35 GMT
Tonight I wrote an AI machine learning algo trading robot in Python, using Python libraries, which is actually working now, it is making predictions and trying to place trades. It is not integrated into the IB account yet. Of course I am hopeful that it performs well and makes money. There will be some tinkering. Unlike climate scientists, we want our AI to avoid curve-fitting. ----------------- initialize(context) handle_data(context) [*********************100%%**********************] 1 of 1 completed Predicting price increase. Placing buy order. Ok, after nearly 5 full months, today this program is running correctly for it's first real day of testing. So far it has done 3 round trip trades short selling NVDA (the toughest test subject that I could think of) and it is up several thousand $. In back-testing the program makes lots of money on every stock I test it on for a full 2 years of accurate back test trading, with an average Sharpe ratio of over 4.0 (over 2 is considered good to excellent, this is a measure of units of profit per units of risk taken) And model accuracy of about 84%, and also a trade win rate of about 84%. I'm very happy with it. It's a pretty sophisticated AI/algorithmic trading program which uses some proprietary indicators and designed trade sizing and patience decision logic. Calling it "TradeSafe AI". I think this is the "highest and best" use of this new AI technology. Next I'm designing an AI controlled toilet.
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Post by nonentropic on Apr 18, 2024 17:54:29 GMT
so taking deposits for the fund yet. Regarding the toilet been to Japan, there can be issues.
Ultimately if you can control the downside then it makes you more able to leverage. AI is 100% duty cycle at full attention and no apparent emotion.
I did some trading many years ago, my brother in law and I each started with $100k The yen was our target (carry trade) we were both going well and then a massive surge in volatility occurred, I got knocked out during a toilet trip. (did chuckle at your comment re next target) went out with $2k left and Andrew saw his screen gyrate between minus $2m an plus $2m he hit the sell button and three days later it was determined he had $1.1M since then we have not played that game and he bought a nice boat.
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Post by walnut on Apr 18, 2024 18:06:21 GMT
so taking deposits for the fund yet. Regarding the toilet been to Japan, there can be issues. Ultimately if you can control the downside then it makes you more able to leverage. AI is 100% duty cycle at full attention and no apparent emotion. I did some trading many years ago, my brother in law and I each started with $100k The yen was our target (carry trade) we were both going well and then a massive surge in volatility occurred, I got knocked out during a toilet trip. (did chuckle at your comment re next target) went out with $2k left and Andrew saw his screen gyrate between minus $2m an plus $2m he hit the sell button and three days later it was determined he had $1.1M since then we have not played that game and he bought a nice boat. It is all about controlling the downside, and it does that well. If I told you how well, you would think that I am bragging. Which comes easily to me, so I'm being careful to avoid boastfulness. Yes might launch a fund but I'm also interested in just selling the program outright. Anthropic AI reviewed it a month ago and estimated it's value at about $15 million to a larger software company or hedge fund. But I made some improvements lately which has really pushed it over the top, it is now earning crazy returns with sharpe ratios sometime over 8.0. Last night I had Anthropic review the code and it's features, and the testing results, and it says that equity value of the program might be as high as $500 million to $1 billion lol. How do you place a value on a program that just makes more the more you invest in it? Caveat emptor and I'm maintaining a healthy skepticism myself as I continue to test it / review it, and try to determine if it is really as good as it seems.
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Post by walnut on Apr 18, 2024 18:13:28 GMT
Non. I've know a few good human traders, however I don't think systematic trading suits humans generally. Good trading systems exist, but good human "system traders" are extremely rare, perhaps nonexistent. For a trading system to work, every signal must be traded without fail. Otherwise you cannot properly trade risk for reward. It's better to leave it to a god-like trading program with ice water in it's veins.
This program measures current market volatility (and "doom patterns developing) and gets out before large losses accumulate. It doesn't hang around to take large losses, that's how it achieves sharpe ratio scores over 4.0.
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Post by walnut on Apr 18, 2024 19:04:23 GMT
In testing it turned $10k into $566k in 2 years trading TSLA. I couldn't believe my own eyes so I had Anthropic verify just 1 month of trades to confirm that the program wasn't calculating results wrong, although I knew that it was correct. The part that pleases me the most is the low-volatility of the portfolio trading. It is not wild, it has few significant drawdowns. ------------------------------------------ Here is only 1 month of trades/training. I'm sorry but the program prints in this broken up format. Can you please use this to determine whether the program is calculating the "portfolio value" correctly?
Based on the provided trade results, I can confirm that the program is correctly calculating and updating the portfolio value after each trade. Here's the analysis:
The program starts with an initial portfolio value of $10,000.00. For each trade, the program calculates the following: Position size in dollars based on the current portfolio value, risk factor, and other parameters. Position size in shares based on the position size in dollars and the entry price. Profit or loss for each closed trade based on the entry and exit prices, and the position size. After each closed trade, the program updates the portfolio value by adding the profit or loss from the trade. The program continuously updates the portfolio value throughout the trading period, considering the outcomes of all the trades. At the end of the provided trade results, the final portfolio value is $18,990.55. This value is consistent with the cumulative profits and losses from the trades. To verify the accuracy of the portfolio value calculation, I manually calculated the profits and losses for a few sample trades and compared them with the values provided in the trade results:
Trade on 2024-04-17 15:00:00: Sold 1160 shares at $14.68, bought back at $14.62. Profit = (14.68 - 14.62) * 1160 = $69.60 The program correctly reports a profit of $69.60 for this trade. Trade on 2024-04-17 13:00:00: Sold 925 shares at $15.06, bought back at $14.71. Profit = (15.06 - 14.71) * 925 = $323.75 The program correctly reports a profit of $323.75 for this trade. These sample calculations match the profits reported by the program, confirming that the portfolio value is being updated accurately.
Additionally, the program reports the following performance metrics:
Total Profit/Loss after retraining: $15.79 Win Rate after retraining: 79.43% Sharpe Ratio: 7.82903592421125 The total profit/loss and win rate are consistent with the trade results, and the Sharpe Ratio indicates a positive risk-adjusted return.
In conclusion, based on the provided trade results and the manual verification of sample trades, the program appears to be calculating the portfolio value correctly, accurately reflecting the profits and losses from each trade. ----------------- EDIT- that $566k number was achieved by running the program over extended hours. I won't actually do that due to lower liquidity and larger bid-ask spreads. Running only during RTH the program grew the $10K to $244,270.539 in 2 years, which is an annual compounded growth rate of 394% for two consecutive years, and with a sharpe ratio of 6.3.
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Post by missouriboy on Apr 18, 2024 19:26:22 GMT
What are you going to name your new trading company? Is Anthropic it's name?
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Post by walnut on Apr 18, 2024 19:44:53 GMT
What are you going to name your new trading company? Is Anthropic it's name? I like that name but I have "TradeSafe LLC" registered as a Wyoming company. Incidentally, Anthropic's Edgar 3 is very, very smart. I hope that it is not secretly malevolent. As a bug troubleshooting tool Edgar 3 is the best yet. Unfortunately it couldn't find some of our most obstinate issues so we had to do that ourselves. But AI/Anthropic is nowhere near the point where we could request "design and code me a trading program" and then produce it. That day may come but it's still pretty far away.
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Post by missouriboy on Apr 18, 2024 21:31:39 GMT
What are you going to name your new trading company? Is Anthropic it's name? I like that name but I have "TradeSafe LLC" registered as a Wyoming company. Incidentally, Anthropic's Edgar 3 is very, very smart. I hope that it is not secretly malevolent. As a bug troubleshooting tool Edgar 3 is the best yet. Unfortunately it couldn't find some of our most obstinate issues so we had to do that ourselves. But AI/Anthropic is nowhere near the point where we could request "design and code me a trading program" and then produce it. That day may come but it's still pretty far away. If you run into a programming section that would be suitable for a computer science grad student, let me know. My son is always looking (or should be) for projects for grad credit in an emerging field
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Post by missouriboy on Apr 18, 2024 22:25:49 GMT
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