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Post by ratty on Nov 19, 2024 5:04:18 GMT
If Trump is smart he will cap spending at current levels his first year in office. Decrease it by one or two percent for the next 3 years of his term. If the economy grows at 3% we can get this turned around in short order. The private sector has to be able to absorb job losses from the federal sector. Going in there like Elon did with Twitter and slashing too aggressively could be a recipe for disaster and a shock to the system. Every Federal agency should be able to take a two or three percent reduction in their budget without causing too much pain. When it comes to the economy I think slow and steady wins the race. They should be very transparent in their methodology and I think the market will rise on shear optimism that common sense and a budget it returning to Washington. Methinks Musk and Ramaswamy should engage you as an advisor.  PS: If you know any Republican representatives, it might help to let them know about the one-term government I mentioned in the previous post. |
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Post by gridley on Nov 19, 2024 12:31:31 GMT
The US is more or less guaranteed to hit a recession by mid-2025 no matter who's in charge or what they do. The economy has been on life support for at least a year and the last quarter was barely adequate even before the apparently inevitable downward revisions to come.
If a body is fairly healthy, you can try to slowly improve it with medicine, exercise, etc.
If a body has late stage cancer you need drastic measures - surgery, radiation, etc. There's no guarantee they'll work, but they're the only thing that might work.
The US economy has very late stage cancer. I don't know what the chances are, but if we try tiny increments over just four years (and remember Trump only gets four, and we probably get stuck with another Dem after him) we won't do nearly enough good.
If Trump does try radical surgery he may botch it, true. In fact its just about a given he WILL do something wrong. We are at the point, however, where we have to take that risk or die anyway.
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Post by Sigurdur on Nov 19, 2024 12:48:21 GMT
Reductions in spending will be met with optimism from the public at large and most businesses.
We keep hearing that we need illegal aliens to fill jobs. Deport aliens, and private sector job growth will absorb the former fed employees.
Slow the rate of Federal spending, regulation etc. The bond market will lower interest rates.
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Post by duwayne on Nov 19, 2024 20:51:04 GMT
There seems to be some optimism concerning Trump's policies. Does anyone see a reason not to be fully invested at your long term equity level at this time?
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Post by Sigurdur on Nov 19, 2024 22:02:05 GMT
There seems to be some optimism concerning Trump's policies. Does anyone see a reason not to be fully invested at your long term equity level at this time? Rate of growth in National Debt. |
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Post by walnut on Nov 19, 2024 23:54:10 GMT
There seems to be some optimism concerning Trump's policies. Does anyone see a reason not to be fully invested at your long term equity level at this time? I'm not starting a cost basis at these levels. And Trump inauguration could (??) be a "sell-the-news" event. I've got private investments to make this year which might do better but good luck with yours. |
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Post by gridley on Nov 20, 2024 12:20:45 GMT
Reductions in spending will be met with optimism from the public at large and most businesses. We keep hearing that we need illegal aliens to fill jobs. Deport aliens, and private sector job growth will absorb the former fed employees. Slow the rate of Federal spending, regulation etc. The bond market will lower interest rates. I doubt most federal bureaucrats would make good laborers. |
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Post by Sigurdur on Nov 20, 2024 14:11:18 GMT
Reductions in spending will be met with optimism from the public at large and most businesses. We keep hearing that we need illegal aliens to fill jobs. Deport aliens, and private sector job growth will absorb the former fed employees. Slow the rate of Federal spending, regulation etc. The bond market will lower interest rates. I doubt most federal bureaucrats would make good laborers. Send them my way. I will teach them. |
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Post by nonentropic on Nov 20, 2024 17:41:16 GMT
The prospect of hunger is focusing.
And ultimately a valuable genetic filter.
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Post by missouriboy on Nov 20, 2024 22:47:24 GMT
The next Grantham Big One.
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Post by missouriboy on Nov 21, 2024 0:45:42 GMT
Recession ? Depression? On its way.
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Post by ratty on Nov 21, 2024 2:34:18 GMT
I doubt most federal bureaucrats would make good laborers. Send them my way. I will teach them.  |
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Post by duwayne on Nov 21, 2024 16:20:01 GMT
Elon and Vivek are obviously going to focus on reducing the size of the federal government and increasing its efficiency but I think they should also take a look at the inflated salaries. On average their scientists and engineers are second-rate, but their salaries don't reflect it. Lower quality industrial workers are leaving for higher paying government jobs.
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Post by code on Nov 21, 2024 17:58:54 GMT
Reductions in spending will be met with optimism from the public at large and most businesses. We keep hearing that we need illegal aliens to fill jobs. Deport aliens, and private sector job growth will absorb the former fed employees. Slow the rate of Federal spending, regulation etc. The bond market will lower interest rates. I hear that too. The cry that farmers will fail and the economy will crash and food prices will sky-rocket because we don't have illegal labor picking our crops. |
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