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Post by walnut on Apr 18, 2024 22:45:23 GMT
I like that name but I have "TradeSafe LLC" registered as a Wyoming company. Incidentally, Anthropic's Edgar 3 is very, very smart. I hope that it is not secretly malevolent. As a bug troubleshooting tool Edgar 3 is the best yet. Unfortunately it couldn't find some of our most obstinate issues so we had to do that ourselves. But AI/Anthropic is nowhere near the point where we could request "design and code me a trading program" and then produce it. That day may come but it's still pretty far away. If you run into a programming section that would be suitable for a computer science grad student, let me know. My son is always looking (or should be) for projects for grad credit in an emerging field Yes possibly, what is his area of interest/specialty? Never know
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Post by walnut on Apr 18, 2024 22:48:56 GMT
At our debt levels, the Fed HAS to stop inflation before interest rates get too high and we go bankrupt. Unfortunately the cure for high interest rates is high interest rates. That also causes defaults and recessions. We will not know when we are past the point of no return until we are past the point of no return. It's like an event horizon.
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Post by glennkoks on Apr 19, 2024 4:36:13 GMT
The Fed is in a pickle. Inflation has come down but it is sticky. 1/2 of their dual mandate is under control, unemployment is low. But inflation is still higher than 2% and after trending down from the crazy highs we experienced several years ago it seems to have flatlined or even ticked back up a notch. If the fed starts to cut rates that inflation number is likely to climb. I think the most likely scenario is the Fed giving up on a 2% target, cutting rates a little and hoping inflation stays in the 3-4 percent range. Outside of its mandate but probably the most palatable option. Geopolitics are not very stable currently either and the world is ripe for a black swan event. That would likely force crude higher and disrupt supply chains and increase inflation.
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Post by missouriboy on Apr 19, 2024 12:40:31 GMT
The Fed is in a pickle. Inflation has come down but it is sticky. 1/2 of their dual mandate is under control, unemployment is low. But inflation is still higher than 2% and after trending down from the crazy highs we experienced several years ago it seems to have flatlined or even ticked back up a notch. If the fed starts to cut rates that inflation number is likely to climb. I think the most likely scenario is the Fed giving up on a 2% target, cutting rates a little and hoping inflation stays in the 3-4 percent range. Outside of its mandate but probably the most palatable option. Geopolitics are not very stable currently either and the world is ripe for a black swan event. That would likely force crude higher and disrupt supply chains and increase inflation. Target 2% was overrun long ago. Having been something of a necessity horder in past years, I am amazed at the new prices as existing supply needs refreshing. Louis and Marie would know where this can lead if not constrained. The urban lower class are now reinforced by the migrant horde. Each demanding either jobs and/or free stuff. The Democrats are running out of options to fund freebies ... but are still selling aberrant dreams that don't include sweat equity. We are in deep doo-doo. I expect this election to be full of Doo-Doo economics.
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Post by missouriboy on Apr 19, 2024 12:56:14 GMT
What are you going to name your new trading company? Is Anthropic it's name? I like that name but I have "TradeSafe LLC" registered as a Wyoming company. Incidentally, Anthropic's Edgar 3 is very, very smart. I hope that it is not secretly malevolent. As a bug troubleshooting tool Edgar 3 is the best yet. Unfortunately it couldn't find some of our most obstinate issues so we had to do that ourselves. But AI/Anthropic is nowhere near the point where we could request "design and code me a trading program" and then produce it. That day may come but it's still pretty far away. I notice this as well. Is there a base language group that Claude or Edgar are written around? Or are they a totally new base?
Welcome to Claude Visit claude.ai! Claude is a family of large language models developed by Anthropic and designed to revolutionize the way you interact with AI. Claude excels at a wide variety of tasks involving language, reasoning, analysis, coding, and more. Our models are highly capable, easy to use, and can be customized to suit your needs.
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Post by walnut on Apr 19, 2024 13:48:34 GMT
As a collaborator/partner Claude is a new, breakthrough technology. Just this guys point of view, but if humanity can resist blowing itself up in trumped up wars for profit, then big advancements are coming over the next 50 years.
I didn't mention above the rates of return my program achieved on various selected stocks, I only quoted the return it earned on the most difficult test subject NVDA. If I posted what it earned on MARA, you guys would not believe me.
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Post by justme on Apr 19, 2024 19:02:44 GMT
Stocks have been falling for 1 week now. We are now back to mid-January values. I suspect part of the motivation for supplemental, is to help the economy.
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Post by duwayne on Apr 20, 2024 2:39:59 GMT
The early part of Biden’s presidency benefited from the momentum of Trump’s highly successful economic policies.
During the 4 years of Trump’s presidency, the S&P was up by more than 70% plus dividends. This, happened despite a devastating COVID epidemic. And there was very little inflation eating up the gains.
In 2021, the first year under Biden the market momentum continued with a gain of 27%.
Then Bidenomics kicked in.
On November 29, 2021 the S&P 500 ETF, SPY was at 464. Today, 2.4 years later it closed at 495, up just 7% over that 2.4 year period. This has been more than eaten up by the inflation of 15+%.
And there may be more downside ahead.
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Post by missouriboy on Apr 20, 2024 23:40:17 GMT
Do Credit Cards tell the story of what's coming?
Fed reports massive spike in defaults. Credit cards being shut off.
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Post by glennkoks on Apr 21, 2024 0:36:58 GMT
Credit card default is the canary in the coal mine when it comes to the health of the economy.
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Post by douglavers on Apr 21, 2024 12:26:02 GMT
The Martians think that the gold price is hoisting storm warning flags.
Nearly every Western country is running unsustainable fiscal deficits, effectively being financed by printing money.
At the end of the day, the Martians think that an inflationary bust is likely.
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Post by justme on Apr 25, 2024 14:39:08 GMT
Gold buyers understand the current economic reality.
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Post by justme on Apr 25, 2024 14:51:10 GMT
Recent data shows a big slow down of the US economy. Government spending slowed down as well. This government spending was leading to the good job reports (even though they were part time jobs). We may not see this reflect until the data is released for May.
With inflation showing signs of picking back up, and the economy showing signs of stress, the Fed is tasked with an impossible choice.
1. Do not cut rates. Either keep rates as is or consider raising rates to tame inflation. This will lead to a recession.
2. Cut rates. While this may keep the stock markets afloat, rampant inflation is here to stay. Many will complain about increasing standard of living costs.
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Post by glennkoks on Apr 25, 2024 15:19:48 GMT
History has taught us that inflation is the greater of two evils when compared to unemployment. It's better to crush inflation at the cost of the economy than it is to let it become established like a cancer. In the 1980's Volcker raised rates to obscene levels to kill inflation. We had the Reagan Recession got over it and moved on to a long prosperous period with low inflation and good economic growth.
In addition I think we all know that real inflation is much higher than official stats if you consider fuel and food. Especially meat. I think the most likely scenario is the Fed will continue the pause and wait and see.
Which brings up the question? How much does the Fed bend to political pressure? No way no how the Biden administration wants to barrel into a recession 6 months from the election. The next President and Congress is going to have an absolute nightmare to deal with as inflation and geopolitical pressures around the world boil over.
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Post by missouriboy on Apr 25, 2024 21:46:24 GMT
History has taught us that inflation is the greater of two evils when compared to unemployment. It's better to crush inflation at the cost of the economy than it is to let it become established like a cancer. In the 1980's Volcker raised rates to obscene levels to kill inflation. We had the Reagan Recession got over it and moved on to a long prosperous period with low inflation and good economic growth. In addition I think we all know that real inflation is much higher than official stats if you consider fuel and food. Especially meat. I think the most likely scenario is the Fed will continue the pause and wait and see. Which brings up the question? How much does the Fed bend to political pressure? No way no how the Biden administration wants to barrel into a recession 6 months from the election. The next President and Congress is going to have an absolute nightmare to deal with as inflation and geopolitical pressures around the world boil over. Since OUR government created this mess by their obscene approach to Covid and the consequent flood of payouts, it seems only just that OUR government suffer the consequences with a 50 percent cut in staffing for ALL (maybe some exceptions) Line Agencies together with the majority of their disbursements. How much of these payouts actually go to citizens in true need?
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