In retaining their seats in Nevada and Arizona, while picking up a Republican-held seat in Pennsylvania, Democrats clinched control of the Senate even as the race in Georgia remains undecided.
If Sen. Raphael Warnock is able to hold his seat in a Dec. 6 runoff against Republican Herschel Walker, Democrats will have actually gained a seat in a year in which Republicans hoped President Biden’s low approval rating would hand them the reins of both chambers of Congress.
Here is how Democrats managed to keep control of the Senate, and how the vote compares to the 2020 presidential results.
FROM 2020 to 2022, PENNSYLVANIA SHIFTED
+3.43 points
DEMOCRAT
2022
2020
1.18 pts.
4.61 pts.
+7.5 D
+5.0 D
+2.5 D
+2.5 R
+5.0 R
+7.5 R
+10.0 D
+10.0 R
MARGIN
Democrat John Fetterman delivered the biggest blow to Republicans, defeating opponent Mehmet Oz by more than four points. Of the most competitive Senate races, it was the first to be called by the Associated Press, and the only Senate seat to change hands this cycle so far. Mr. Fetterman was propelled by voters who identify as independents, a group he won by 20 points, according to the AP VoteCast survey of more than 115,000 voters across the country.
NEWSLETTER SIGN-UP
Capital Journal
Scoops, analysis and insights driving Washington from the WSJ's D.C. bureau.
Preview
Subscribe
Nationwide, independents favored Democrats by 4 points. The AP VoteCast survey was conducted Oct. 31 through the closing of the polls on Nov. 8 by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research for Fox News, The Wall Street Journal, the Associated Press and other media outlets. It has a margin of error of plus or minus less than 1 percentage point on the full sample.
Vote shift from 2020 to 2022
+5 D
+5 R
+10 D
+10 R
Pittsburgh
Harrisburg
Philadelphia
Margin among independents
+20 pts. D
Pennsylvania
+4 pts. D
Nationally
MARGIN
FROM 2020 to 2022, ARIZONA SHIFTED
+4.70 points
DEMOCRAT
2020
2022
0.31 pts.
5.02 pts.
+7.5 D
+5.0 D
+2.5 D
+2.5 R
+5.0 R
+7.5 R
+10.0 D
+10.0 R
MARGIN
Democrats were in a stronger position in Arizona leading up to the election, based on combined ratings from three nonpartisan political analysts, and Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly won by about 5 points. He was boosted by a strong showing in Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix, where Mr. Kelly ran ahead of Mr. Biden’s 2020 performance. Arizona independents broke for the Democrat by a wider margin here than any other competitive Senate race, favoring Mr. Kelly by 36 points over Republican Blake Masters.
Vote shift from 2020 to 2022
+5 D
+5 R
+10 D
+10 R
Flagstaff
Phoenix
Tucson
Margin among independents
+36 pts. D
Arizona
+4 pts. D
Nationally
MARGIN
FROM 2020 to 2022, NEVADA SHIFTED
+1.64 points
REPUBLICAN
2020
2022
2.45 pts.
0.81 pts.
+7.5 D
+5.0 D
+2.5 D
+2.5 R
+5.0 R
+7.5 R
+10.0 D
+10.0 R
MARGIN
Nevada was the final Senate race to be called, with the AP declaring Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto the winner Saturday night. The seat was seen by many Republicans as their best pickup opportunity, but the Democratic incumbent held back challenger Adam Laxalt, winning by a margin of less than a point. Ms. Cortez Masto slightly underperformed Mr. Biden in populous Clark County, home to Las Vegas, as well as bellwether Washoe County, which includes Reno, but carried both by enough to win re-election.
Vote shift from 2020 to 2022
+5 D
+5 R
+10 D
+10 R
Elko
Reno
Carson City
Las Vegas
Margin among independents
+21 pts. D
Nevada
+4 pts. D
Nationally
MARGIN
FROM 2020 to 2022, GEORGIA SHIFTED
+0.70 points
DEMOCRAT
2022
2020
0.24 pts.
0.93 pts.
+7.5 D
+5.0 D
+2.5 D
+2.5 R
+5.0 R
+7.5 R
+10.0 D
+10.0 R
MARGIN
Just as it was in 2020, the Georgia Senate race will be decided in a runoff, after no candidate received more than 50% of the vote. Mr. Warnock fell about 0.6 percentage point short of winning outright.
A big unknown will be how much turnout drops, especially with Democratic control of the Senate already certain. Additionally, the deadline for registering to vote in the runoff has already passed, a change from 2020. If independent voters return to the polls, it could boost Mr. Warnock. Those voters favored the Democrat by 28 points in the November election.
Vote shift from 2020 to 2022
+5 D
+5 R
+10 D
+10 R
Atlanta
Savannah
Margin among independents
Georgia
+28 pts. D
+4 pts. D
Nationally
MARGIN
One of the keys to Democrats’ success in Senate races is that they generally ran ahead of their party’s gubernatorial candidates. The GOP scored victories in Georgia and Nevada, even as they face a runoff in the former and lost the Senate race in latter.
Margin of victory
DEMOCRAT
REPUBLICAN
+15 D
pct. pts.
+10 D
+5 D
+5 R
+10 R
Georgia
Governor
Senator
Going to a runoff
Nevada
Governor
Senator
Arizona
Governor
Senator
Pennsylvania
Governor
Senator
Source: Associated Press
In Arizona, Democrat Katie Hobbs won the governor’s race, but the margin was much narrower than Mr. Kelly’s Senate win. Pennsylvania was the only competitive state where the Democratic gubernatorial nominee won more convincingly than the party’s Senate candidate.
Note: Margins and vote shifts are based on each party’s share of the two-party vote (excluding other parties/independents).
Sources: Associated Press (results); AP VoteCast (independents)
James Benedict contributed to this article.
Write to Stephanie Stamm at Stephanie.Stamm@wsj.com