Astromet
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Post by Astromet on Dec 31, 2021 12:11:47 GMT
Hi Astro, I am a big supporter of your forecasts, but, so far, we are having a very mild winter here in the UK. The La Nina in the Pacific seems to be coming to an end. I have not lost faith, yet, but would like to see more evidence of this extensive cold spell! Thanks Neil, however, there is plenty of evidence all around, as the length of this winter will extend into early spring, and the winter of 2021-2022 has only just begun. There are plenty of cold spells in the northern hemisphere (and will appear in your region as well.) People like to focus only are where they are located, which is simply micro-climate view, however, as I said, be prepared. As for the La Nina in the Pacific, well, I forecast this current La Nina now from 10 years ago as you know, and La Nina will continue straight into late March/early April 2022 by the way. |
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Astromet
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Post by Astromet on Jan 1, 2022 5:19:04 GMT
Might break Astro's ..... .  I wonder if Astro will come out with a revised forecast. I never 'revise' my forecasts Simon. I've made numerous weather and climate forecasts, months, years and even decades, in advance. After I perform my calculations, I gather my notes, and produce and publish a forecast. Once published, it is done. I don't do revisions. You sound a bit new to climatology, meteorology and astrometeorology, unaware of astronomic forecasting, however, I suggest you do study, research and homework how accurate short-medium and long-range climate forecasts are done. I have written multiple tutorials on forecasting for well over a dozen years, including on this forum, and the last pro board at Solarcycle24. Here is one of them ->> solarcycle24com.proboards.com/thread/2413/global-cooling-forecast-basics-astrometeorology?fbclid=IwAR0dOEi2mdSML0Ij9WRrmX56tND-7_s_0kFjtRsfEdQv3k-qA8x862w8_bY |
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Post by code on Jan 4, 2022 15:03:12 GMT
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Astromet
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Post by Astromet on Jan 9, 2022 15:51:11 GMT
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Post by flearider on Jan 9, 2022 16:30:21 GMT
well just not seeing it yet in the uk .. but there's time i suppose .. 8 c here to day .. 5-7c forecast for rest of the week ..  |
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Post by acidohm on Jan 9, 2022 17:22:38 GMT
well just not seeing it yet in the uk .. but there's time i suppose .. 8 c here to day .. 5-7c forecast for rest of the week .. Some of our most wintery weather occurred late January or later, but we're very much half way through winter and not much to show for it... |
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Post by code on Jan 9, 2022 17:39:42 GMT
Winter 2021 in the Northern Hemisphere began on
Tuesday, December 21, 2021
and ends on
Sunday, March 20, 2022
All dates are in Pacific Time.
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Post by acidohm on Jan 9, 2022 18:03:01 GMT
Winter 2021 in the Northern Hemisphere began on Tuesday, December 21, 2021 and ends on Sunday, March 20, 2022 All dates are in Pacific Time. Yeah I see what your saying, seasonally, UK, I'm more of a December to February kinda guy. March April May spring June July August summer Sept Oct Nov autumn. |
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Astromet
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Post by Astromet on Jan 12, 2022 6:12:09 GMT
well just not seeing it yet in the uk .. but there's time i suppose .. 8 c here to day .. 5-7c forecast for rest of the week ..  Europe will see its turn... just be patient. |
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Post by flearider on Jan 12, 2022 13:46:36 GMT
well just not seeing it yet in the uk .. but there's time i suppose .. 8 c here to day .. 5-7c forecast for rest of the week .. Europe will see its turn... just be patient. well if that high over the uk moves up to the top of greenland .. maybe well probably .. but with 2 months to go i'll just hibernate ..  where not europe any more so may miss us ..lol  |
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Astromet
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Post by Astromet on Jan 15, 2022 3:46:52 GMT
Plenty of cold tmperatures Code, as I forecast back in August, plenty of precipitation to go around this winter in North America - including the record snowfall you mentioned for the Pacific Northwest. |
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Astromet
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Post by Astromet on Jan 17, 2022 0:33:28 GMT
So far it has been a very warm start to the winter in aggregate and has not started early. It does not appear this forecast will be correct for a long cold snowy winter unless the weather changes in a hurry. Never comment like that Weathergeek, as there is no 'aggregate' for you to determine. It has not been a "very warm" start to the winter, as winter hadn't even begun at the time you wrote that (Dec. 17th) except in regions where it obviously was underway in November and December (note the below normal temps/ record snow in Alaska and the record precipitation of rain and snow in the Pacific Northwest & California.) The forecast I wrote is the same I've had for years on this La Nina winter and as of January 16, 2022, there is plenty of winter to go and it will extend into March and April 2022 as well. I forecast this winter 2021-2022 & spring 2022 for the northern hemisphere, and as I said, there is more to come. Wait until the 'fat lady sings, before proncouning judgment on my forecasts. You should 'observe' the weather and climate rather than presume from guessing. Southern snow totals exceed half a foot in many placesSeveral areas in the South have reported more than half a foot of snow as a large winter storm impacted the region. Valley Springs, Arkansas, located in the north-central part of the state, topped the southern snow reports with 14 inches. Close behind was East Flats, North Carolina, with 12 inches of snow. South Carolina, Mississippi and Tennessee also had at least one place report more than six inches of snow on Sunday, Jan. 16, 2022.  For more, see ->> www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/live-news/live-updates-winter-storm-hitting-southeast-and-northeast/1125910?utm_medium=push&utm_source=pushly&utm_content=1801431&utm_campaign=pushly_manual6 die due to heavy snow in Japan; bad weather expected to continue. See ->> mainichi.jp/english/articles/20220114/p2a/00m/0na/030000c |
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Astromet
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Post by Astromet on Jan 18, 2022 22:49:11 GMT
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Astromet
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Post by Astromet on Jan 30, 2022 3:17:09 GMT
So far it has been a very warm start to the winter in aggregate and has not started early. It does not appear this forecast will be correct for a long cold snowy winter unless the weather changes in a hurry. A time period with many extremes often does more damage (like Texas last February) than flash-freezing us till spring. North America is just one part. From reports, it was not a warm start in parts of Asia and Europe. We will see where and when (or if) the properly located "bumps" in the vortex direct the jet stream our way and for how long. The last one didn't propagate as far south as the models wanted to take it. I just want "enough" cold to kill a bunch of ticks AND climate modelers.  It would be nice if it was a "definitive" leveler. But I can't expect anybody to successfully call the magnitude and timing of every bump(s) - block(s) in the pressure system. If it doesn't show up, it won't break my heart. But don't warm up to the point that my apples and peaches start budding and then get zapped ... like they did last spring. As I previously forecast, La Nina will continue into the early spring of 2022: See ->> www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/la-ni-c3-b1a-likely-to-continue-into-spring-what-that-could-mean-for-central-texas/ar-AASQB64 |
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Post by walnut on Jan 30, 2022 16:30:39 GMT
Looks like some real winter weather is headed to the central US this week.
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It would be nice if it was a "definitive" leveler. But I can't expect anybody to successfully call the magnitude and timing of every bump(s) - block(s) in the pressure system. If it doesn't show up, it won't break my heart. But don't warm up to the point that my apples and peaches start budding and then get zapped ... like they did last spring.