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Post by code on Dec 18, 2021 21:08:49 GMT
NOAA's January Outlook...We'll see how this one pans out.
so far it is cool here in the PNW |
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Astromet
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Meanwhile, here in the real world...
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Post by Astromet on Dec 20, 2021 12:06:39 GMT
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simon
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Post by simon on Dec 20, 2021 18:32:09 GMT
Looks like December is going down in the record books for record warmth. Dr. Judah Cohen states that at this point winter temps could go either way. It will interesting to see how the rest of winter unfolds. So far one of the coldest months of the year has gone missing. According to the Bloomberg link below, this December is going down as the 3rd warmest going back to 1950. Merry Christmas everybody. I'll post Dr. Cohen's blog on Thursday then I'm out for the holiday.
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Post by code on Dec 21, 2021 16:11:45 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 21, 2021 19:51:30 GMT
Looks like December is going down in the record books for record warmth. Dr. Judah Cohen states that at this point winter temps could go either way. It will interesting to see how the rest of winter unfolds. So far one of the coldest months of the year has gone missing. According to the Bloomberg link below, this December is going down as the 3rd warmest going back to 1950. Merry Christmas everybody. I'll post Dr. Cohen's blog on Thursday then I'm out for the holiday.
Until the big polar blob lurches our direction, me and Cindy (my pickaxe) are gardening.  I'm guessing that there is not much gardening (at our latitude or above) going on in Europe and Asia. |
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Post by code on Dec 23, 2021 15:12:10 GMT
December 22, 2021 An Incredible Cold Wave is Being ForecastForget the snow. There will be lots in the mountains and some limited lowland areas will get a few inches of the white stuff as well. It is the extreme cold you need to pay attention to. Back in June, I couldn't believe the extreme conditions the models were forecasting--including both daily and all-time records. The models are doing it again, but this time for record-breaking cold. Cold enough to kill those attempting to live outside without shelter--making it mandatory to get all homeless inside no later than Saturday. Consider the surface air temperature forecast from the European Center global model for SeaTac Airport. After Saturday, high temperatures will remain below freezing for at least a week, with December 30th having a high of 17F and a low of -1F, which would be the ALL-TIME RECORD LOW FOR ALL TIME FOR SEATTLE.
What about temperatures in Seattle forecast by the University of Washington system run by my group (see below)? I really can't believe it. Temperatures dropping to nearly zero and below on several days.
Stay tuned, but prepare.
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simon
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Post by simon on Dec 23, 2021 16:20:03 GMT
December 22, 2021 An Incredible Cold Wave is Being ForecastForget the snow. There will be lots in the mountains and some limited lowland areas will get a few inches of the white stuff as well. It is the extreme cold you need to pay attention to. Back in June, I couldn't believe the extreme conditions the models were forecasting--including both daily and all-time records. The models are doing it again, but this time for record-breaking cold. Cold enough to kill those attempting to live outside without shelter--making it mandatory to get all homeless inside no later than Saturday. Consider the surface air temperature forecast from the European Center global model for SeaTac Airport. After Saturday, high temperatures will remain below freezing for at least a week, with December 30th having a high of 17F and a low of -1F, which would be the ALL-TIME RECORD LOW FOR ALL TIME FOR SEATTLE.
What about temperatures in Seattle forecast by the University of Washington system run by my group (see below)? I really can't believe it. Temperatures dropping to nearly zero and below on several days.
Stay tuned, but prepare.
Stay warm and safe over there. |
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simon
New Member
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Post by simon on Dec 23, 2021 16:28:05 GMT
The latest 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast from NOAA. Incredible cold forecast for the PNW and the west in general with some cold drifting to the northern plains and a bit in the Midwest. Dr. Judah Cohen talks about this in his latest blog and gives his ideas about what the rest of winter will look like. It is worth the 5 min read. An excerpt is below. www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/
"As I have been discussing, I feel that the atmosphere has approached a fork in the road for the winter. The first path includes a brief colder period as we close out the year and a resumption of relatively milder weather will return early in the new Year. The second path means the overall mild winter is mostly winding down and much of the remainder of the winter will feature colder weather. Based on my own diagnosis, I feel that the atmosphere has made a step towards the colder solution."
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Post by nonentropic on Dec 26, 2021 17:48:23 GMT
www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/Xmas all. Have a look at the SOI never seen it go this wild hard neg then bang as high as it has virtually ever been. What does it mean?? looking at the western US/Can ski fields they are very cold and snow covered. Code and Co it looks challenging. Best to all and lets keep this site rolling lots of fresh faces so all good.
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Post by code on Dec 26, 2021 19:08:29 GMT
December 22, 2021 An Incredible Cold Wave is Being ForecastForget the snow. There will be lots in the mountains and some limited lowland areas will get a few inches of the white stuff as well. It is the extreme cold you need to pay attention to. Back in June, I couldn't believe the extreme conditions the models were forecasting--including both daily and all-time records. The models are doing it again, but this time for record-breaking cold. Cold enough to kill those attempting to live outside without shelter--making it mandatory to get all homeless inside no later than Saturday. Consider the surface air temperature forecast from the European Center global model for SeaTac Airport. After Saturday, high temperatures will remain below freezing for at least a week, with December 30th having a high of 17F and a low of -1F, which would be the ALL-TIME RECORD LOW FOR ALL TIME FOR SEATTLE.
What about temperatures in Seattle forecast by the University of Washington system run by my group (see below)? I really can't believe it. Temperatures dropping to nearly zero and below on several days.
Stay tuned, but prepare.
Stay warm and safe over there. Are you kidding? I like the snow! |
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simon
New Member
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Post by simon on Dec 28, 2021 3:46:30 GMT
Stay warm and safe over there. Are you kidding? I like the snow! So do I. Just stay safe on the roads. |
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Astromet
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Meanwhile, here in the real world...
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Post by Astromet on Dec 28, 2021 10:46:34 GMT
Stay warm and safe over there. Are you kidding? I like the snow! CLIMATE CHANGE - Global Cooling: 2020s, 2030s & 2040s The Sun's Grand Minimum - December 2021 Remember My Warnings On Winter 2021-/2022 & Spring 2022? by Theodore White, astromet.sci Soon, it will become very difficult once again for climatologists, meteorologists, government and agents of the establishment mainstream media to ignore the fact that the Earth's weather and climate is not caused by ' human-induced climate change.' As forecast, the Winter of 2021-2022, and Spring 2022 will see many cold and precipitation records smashed, as I have long predicted for the winter and spring seasons ahead for the northern hemisphere. In fact, my forecast is starting to play out in real time and many will see more of this in the weeks and months to come as the winter of 2021-2022 will go down with many smashed records. Those in the American Pacific Northwest and western Canada are about to get a taste of those smashed records right about now - and there will be more to come. This is the weather of global cooling, a new mini-ice age - under a quiescent Sun, as I have long forecast. See ->> www.ctvnews.ca/climate-and-environment/dangerous-territory-western-canada-sees-extreme-cold-reaching-56-c-1.5720447?fbclid=IwAR3HxF92cZ1v3nqTINYddv94d2fB_FQxeVpiOHZf7v92cPDuagHgi0OKgQUSee ->> www.timesunion.com/news/article/So-difficult-Northwest-cold-forces-some-into-16733032.phpSee ->> cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/12/an-incredible-cold-wave-is-being.html |
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Astromet
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Meanwhile, here in the real world...
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Post by Astromet on Dec 30, 2021 6:23:21 GMT
NOAA's January Outlook...We'll see how this one pans out.
so far it is cool here in the PNW I wouldn't place much on any of NOAA's seasonal forecasts Code. I have never seen any of NOAA's 'equal chances' forecasts come to fruition since the 1980s. I have continually out forecast NOAA and the national weather service year in and year out for several decades. That graphic they use each year, also proves that NOAA's forecasters still cannot perform seasonal forecasts, something that is very easy and matter of fact with me to forecast. As for the 'real world' can anyone see what is happening as we enter the Winter 2021-2022 season that I have long forecast for the northern hemisphere. Only Mother Nature confirms prior forecasts as successes or busts: Let's take a look at a sample of just some of numerous weather & climate events to date: (And it is going to get far worse into early 2022)
 See ->> Nevada governor declares snow emergency; bitter cold on the way -> www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2021-12-29/nevada-governor-declares-snow-emergency-bitter-cold-on-waySee ->> Hundreds Across Minneapolis Going Without Shelter In Bitter Cold -> news.yahoo.com/hundreds-across-minneapolis-going-without-045800929.htmlSee ->> Bitter cold to stick around in Seattle area, with more snow possible at week’s end -> www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/weather/bitter-cold-to-stick-around-in-seattle-area-with-more-snow-possible-at-weeks-end/See ->> British Columbia is still in the midst of a brutal cold spell gripping much of Western Canada. Arctic outflow warnings are in effect for much of the South Coast, including Metro Vancouver, while extreme cold warnings paint the Interior. Vancouver airport recently recorded its coldest temperature in half a century ->> www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/news/article/normally-balmy-vancouver-notches-its-coldest-temperature-in-half-a-centurySee ->> "Snowbound" was not a term Stephen Kulieke thought he would hear at the end of California's driest year in a century, but that's precisely the position the Sierra City resident found himself in this week. "It's snowmaggedon," said Kulieke, 71, whose mountain cabin was buried under at least 4 feet of powder Monday amid record-breaking snowfall in the Sierra Nevada. "It's just beyond belief how much snow there is!" Record-breaking Sierra snow buries towns, closes highways ->> news.yahoo.com/record-breaking-sierra-snow-buries-184157552.htmlAs I had forecast a decade ago for this Winter 2021-2022 and Spring 2022, the weather of global cooling with smash many long-standing weather records along with the double dip 2021-2022 La Nina I also forecast for this time as well. Those who heeded my numerous forecasts for this winter & coming spring - and who prepared - will do very well surviving what I have forecast. |
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Astromet
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Meanwhile, here in the real world...
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Post by Astromet on Dec 31, 2021 7:24:29 GMT
The latest forecast from Dr. Judah Cohen with an excerpt below...enjoy!
"In conclusion I think we have reached a fork in the road. The first path is an overall mild winter with an ongoing T-S-T coupling that favors a positive AO, a strong stratospheric PV and relatively mild temperatures. We are currently entering a period that is an interruption to the overall mild pattern, it will likely last into the beginning of the year but much of January and February will be mild. The alternate path is that we are concluding our extensive mild period and the continuation of the mild period is being discontinued or disrupted by favorable placement of ridge/high pressure centers that in the short term is allowing the NH landmasses to cool significantly. But I do think for the relatively cold pattern to have longevity, it needs to involve the stratospheric PV either through a classical SSW or alternatively a stretched PV but in the former disruption, it would likely need to occur multiple times to have a discernable impact on the seasonal means. Again, I do think that the best plot to determine which path we are on the PCH and WAFz plots are critical."
goes Not much from Cohen there Simon, not even what you call a 'forecast?' How is what she wrote a 'forecast?' Members of this board know that I forecast, years in advance in fact, for this winter of 2021/2022, plus forecasting the current double-dip La Nina for this time, some ten (10) years ago. Here's the rest of Cohen's comments by the way, which shows she has no idea of how this winter will turn out. She mixes all manner of apples an oranges, and just guesses. That isn't forecasting dude, she is just musing, and clearly doesn't know. I quote her own comments here: "I continue to be baffled from the extended period where the stratosphere and the troposphere remain uncoupled. In the past three blogs now, I have discussed, at least for me, how the winter evolves from here has reached a fork in the road and I can see two distinct paths with very different outcomes. The first path is a troposphere-stratosphere-troposphere (T-S-T) coupling event that in the short term is characterized by a relatively cold period across the Northern Hemisphere (NH) continents but transitions to an extended period of a strong polar vortex (PV), a positive AO/NAO and widespread relatively mild temperatures across the NH continents starting most likely in mid-January. This first path is supported by the polar cap geopotential height anomalies (PCHs) which shows cold/negative PCHs in the stratosphere and we are currently in the mid-point of this T-S-T coupling event where the mild tropospheric response to the strong PV is delayed but it is coming.
The second path is where the relatively cold period across the NH continents for the end of December and into early January disrupts the overall mild T-S-T coupling event. In its place, we are at the very beginning of a T-S-T coupling event that favors a more disrupted PV and the remainder of the winter is overall colder than the first path. In this second path or scenario the upcoming cold period would not be continuous but would also transition to a milder period in mid- to late-January, but a significant weakened PV would couple to the surface leading to potentially and extended cold period in late winter. And it is frustrating for me at least that I still am not confident of one scenario over another.So, she does not forecast, and is "baffled' as she says. How is that 'forecasting' Simon? |
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Post by neilhamp on Dec 31, 2021 7:58:14 GMT
Hi Astro,
I am a big supporter of your forecasts, but, so far, we are having a very mild winter here in the UK.
The La Nina in the Pacific seems to be coming to an end.
I have not lost faith, yet, but would like to see more evidence of this extensive cold spell!
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I'm guessing that there is not much gardening (at our latitude or above) going on in Europe and Asia.
