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Post by Sigurdur on Jul 16, 2021 23:18:33 GMT
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2018EF001006Abstract The western United States remains well below historical wildfire activity, yet misconceptions abound in the public and news media that the area burning by wildfire each year in the American West is unprecedented. We submit that short-term records of wildfire and a disproportionate focus on recent fire trends within high-profile science stoke these misconceptions. Furthermore, we highlight serious risks to long-term water security (encompassing water supply, storage, and quality) that have only recently been recognized and are underestimated as the result of skewed perspectives of wildfire. Compiling several data sets, we illustrate a comprehensive history of western wildfire, demonstrate that the majority of western settlement occurred during an artificially and anomalously low period of wildfire in the twentieth century, and discuss the troubling implications the misalignment of wildfire activity and human development may have for the long-term projections of water security. A crucial first step toward realigning public perspectives will require scientists and journalists to present recent increases in wildfire area within the context and scale of longer-term trends. Second, proper housing development and resource management will require an appreciation for the differing western ecosystems and the flexibility to adopt varied approaches. These actions are critical for realigning public understanding of both the direct and indirect risks associated with wildfire and ensuring adequate and appropriate measures are taken as we navigate a future of increasing fire in the West
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Post by Sigurdur on Jul 16, 2021 23:19:59 GMT
royalsociety.org/blog/2020/10/global-trends-wildfire/Back in 2016, Philosophical Transactions B published a theme issue ‘The interaction of fire and mankind’. One of the articles, ‘Global trends in wildfire and its impacts: perceptions versus realities in a changing world’ discussed how the global area burned has overall been decreasing over the last decades. Given the news of devastating wildfires in California and Australia, we caught up with authors, Professor Stefan Doerr from Swansea University and Dr Cristina Santín from Swansea University and UMIB-CSIC, Spain, to find out whether things have changed since its publication.
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Post by Sigurdur on Jul 16, 2021 23:21:33 GMT
Abstract Understanding the causes and consequences of wildfires in forests of the western United States requires integrated information about fire, climate changes, and human activity on multiple temporal scales. We use sedimentary charcoal accumulation rates to construct long-term variations in fire during the past 3,000 y in the American West and compare this record to independent fire-history data from historical records and fire scars. There has been a slight decline in burning over the past 3,000 y, with the lowest levels attained during the 20th century and during the Little Ice Age (LIA, ca. 1400–1700 CE [Common Era]). Prominent peaks in forest fires occurred during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (ca. 950–1250 CE) and during the 1800s. Analysis of climate reconstructions beginning from 500 CE and population data show that temperature and drought predict changes in biomass burning up to the late 1800s CE. Since the late 1800s , human activities and the ecological effects of recent high fire activity caused a large, abrupt decline in burning similar to the LIA fire decline. Consequently, there is now a forest “fire deficit” in the western United States attributable to the combined effects of human activities, ecological, and climate changes. Large fires in the late 20th and 21st century fires have begun to address the fire deficit, but it is continuing to grow. www.pnas.org/content/109/9/E535.short |
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Post by ratty on Jul 17, 2021 11:56:23 GMT
Abstract Understanding the causes and consequences of wildfires in forests of the western United States requires integrated information about fire, climate changes, and human activity on multiple temporal scales. We use sedimentary charcoal accumulation rates to construct long-term variations in fire during the past 3,000 y in the American West and compare this record to independent fire-history data from historical records and fire scars. There has been a slight decline in burning over the past 3,000 y, with the lowest levels attained during the 20th century and during the Little Ice Age (LIA, ca. 1400–1700 CE [Common Era]). Prominent peaks in forest fires occurred during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (ca. 950–1250 CE) and during the 1800s. Analysis of climate reconstructions beginning from 500 CE and population data show that temperature and drought predict changes in biomass burning up to the late 1800s CE. Since the late 1800s , human activities and the ecological effects of recent high fire activity caused a large, abrupt decline in burning similar to the LIA fire decline. Consequently, there is now a forest “fire deficit” in the western United States attributable to the combined effects of human activities, ecological, and climate changes. Large fires in the late 20th and 21st century fires have begun to address the fire deficit, but it is continuing to grow.www.pnas.org/content/109/9/E535.shortSo, we need more fires? |
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Post by Sigurdur on Jul 17, 2021 12:55:14 GMT
Yep, for proper forest management.
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 17, 2021 17:52:15 GMT
Yep, for proper forest management. Gotta keep that dead wood cleared out before there's enough to fuel an inferno. Kinda like government.  |
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Post by code on Jul 18, 2021 14:00:49 GMT
Excellent link Sig!
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Post by blustnmtn on Jul 28, 2021 17:31:22 GMT
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Post by blustnmtn on Aug 30, 2021 18:22:48 GMT
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Post by blustnmtn on Sept 7, 2021 23:50:41 GMT
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Post by Sigurdur on Sept 30, 2021 3:49:19 GMT
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Post by code on Sept 30, 2021 16:40:29 GMT
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Wildfires
Oct 13, 2021 12:24:45 GMT
via mobile
Post by Sigurdur on Oct 13, 2021 12:24:45 GMT
Technological Forecasting and Social Change Volume 156, July 2020, 119981 Welfare in the 21st century: Increasing development, reducing inequality, the impact of climate change, and the cost of climate policies Author links open overlay panelBjornLomborg doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.119981Get rights and content Abstract Climate change is real and its impacts are mostly negative, but common portrayals of devastation are unfounded. Scenarios set out under the UN Climate Panel (IPCC) show human welfare will likely increase to 450% of today's welfare over the 21st century. Climate damages will reduce this welfare increase to 434%. Arguments for devastation typically claim that extreme weather (like droughts, floods, wildfires, and hurricanes) is already worsening because of climate change. This is mostly misleading and inconsistent with the IPCC literature. For instance, the IPCC finds no trend for global hurricane frequency and has low confidence in attribution of changes to human activity, while the US has not seen an increase in landfalling hurricanes since 1900. Global death risk from extreme weather has declined 99% over 100 years and global costs have declined 26% over the last 28 years. www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162520304157 |
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Post by blustnmtn on Oct 13, 2021 18:25:56 GMT
Technological Forecasting and Social Change Volume 156, July 2020, 119981 Welfare in the 21st century: Increasing development, reducing inequality, the impact of climate change, and the cost of climate policies Author links open overlay panelBjornLomborg doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.119981Get rights and content Abstract Climate change is real and its impacts are mostly negative, but common portrayals of devastation are unfounded. Scenarios set out under the UN Climate Panel (IPCC) show human welfare will likely increase to 450% of today's welfare over the 21st century. Climate damages will reduce this welfare increase to 434%. Arguments for devastation typically claim that extreme weather (like droughts, floods, wildfires, and hurricanes) is already worsening because of climate change. This is mostly misleading and inconsistent with the IPCC literature. For instance, the IPCC finds no trend for global hurricane frequency and has low confidence in attribution of changes to human activity, while the US has not seen an increase in landfalling hurricanes since 1900. Global death risk from extreme weather has declined 99% over 100 years and global costs have declined 26% over the last 28 years. www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162520304157Since global climate clearly changed from 1600 - 1900, it is obvious that climate change is and always has been real. |
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Post by blustnmtn on Mar 7, 2022 0:34:10 GMT
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