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Post by duwayne on Sept 19, 2024 1:47:58 GMT
I predict we are in the first year of a 20-year global temperature downtrend as measured by the UAH anomaly.
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Post by ratty on Sept 19, 2024 4:12:55 GMT
I predict we are in the first year of a 20-year global temperature downtrend as measured by the UAH anomaly. I'll put your prediction in my calendar for when I'm 99.  |
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Post by nonentropic on Sept 19, 2024 7:36:26 GMT
Can we please have a bit of substance with that prediction.
Are talking about a fall from a HT temperature spike or a rollover from the 2016 to 2024 plateau that we have witnessed.
My personal position is that there is mounting evidence for a climate shift AMO etc etc solar cycles sliding back and the building evidence that snow still falls on the ground.
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Post by duwayne on Sept 19, 2024 14:10:22 GMT
Can we please have a bit of substance with that prediction. Are talking about a fall from a HT temperature spike or a rollover from the 2016 to 2024 plateau that we have witnessed. My personal position is that there is mounting evidence for a climate shift AMO etc etc solar cycles sliding back and the building evidence that snow still falls on the ground. This prediction is for a 20-year decline from temperatures of the past several months. If you calculate a least squares trendline over the past 12 months starting from September 2023 there is a very slight downtrend. My prediction is that if you run that calculation 19 years from now, the trend will be down rather than up. No global warming over that period in spite of the fact that atmospheric CO2 will be increasing.
A key factor in my thinking is a fading effect of Hunga Tonga.
If the temperature decline does occur it will happen while the warmists are pushing for massive expenditures to fight something that isn't happening.
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Post by duwayne on Sept 19, 2024 14:19:03 GMT
I predict we are in the first year of a 20-year global temperature downtrend as measured by the UAH anomaly. I'll put your prediction in my calendar for when I'm 99. I'm quite a bit older than you are so I won't be here to report on my prediction. |
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Post by ratty on Sept 19, 2024 22:25:18 GMT
I'll put your prediction in my calendar for when I'm 99. I'm quite a bit older than you are so I won't be here to report on my prediction. That's OK. I won't be here to play the critic. |
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Post by flearider on Sept 20, 2024 21:58:41 GMT
simple fact is the earth will only go to a certain point as within the records it's shown .. then we hit a glacial ..and 80% of life just ends. what ever happens in 10,20 50 or a 100 yrs is nothing to the planet we live on and we are so conceited that we think we know everything ... but when greed take a hold of you science theirs not a lot you can do. i'll watch to the end of my life and really hope i see some of whats to come ... at the most i have 20 yrs but i will have popcorn and meat protein and rum ... cant forget the rum ..and yes i will laugh and say told ya so ..
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Post by ratty on Sept 20, 2024 22:02:06 GMT
simple fact is the earth will only go to a certain point as within the records it's shown .. then we hit a glacial ..and 80% of life just ends. what ever happens in 10,20 50 or a 100 yrs is nothing to the planet we live on and we are so conceited that we think we know everything ... but when greed take a hold of you science theirs not a lot you can do. i'll watch to the end of my life and really hope i see some of whats to come ... at the most i have 20 yrs but i will have popcorn and meat protein and rum ... cant forget the rum ..and yes i will laugh and say told ya so .. Flea, I've been waiting to say " I told you so!" since ClimateGate in November 2009. and  |
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Post by neilhamp on Sept 23, 2024 11:44:57 GMT
Duwayne, As you may have noted, I am busy keeping an eye on the Artic Sea Ice Extent. September data soon to be updated at "Sea Ice Extent" post. There has been no decline in sea ice since 2010 (PIOMAS sea ice volume, shown below) The AMO reached its maximum in 2010. (Shown in red taken from "Wood4thetrees") I am still waiting to see the AMO start to fall. There is no sign of any decline as yet. If this does occur, I expect to see the Sea Ice Volume start to rise I hope your prediction is right !   |
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 19, 2024 15:58:47 GMT
I predict we are in the first year of a 20-year global temperature downtrend as measured by the UAH anomaly. Winter 2024 is starting out in your favor duwayne. I remember 2010-11 and I'm not looking forward to a repeat. Flagstaff AZ got buried that year. And the winter after, middle Earth got buried. Looking for a sub-tropical hideaway.
Cold Devastates UK Growing Season—Second-Worst Harvest Ever;
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 20, 2024 14:09:05 GMT
I'll put your prediction in my calendar for when I'm 99. I'm quite a bit older than you are so I won't be here to report on my prediction. Consider the challenge of reporting to us on the 'climate' from the other side. I'm hoping for a constant 75F.  With a choice of iced tea or lemonade. |
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 20, 2024 19:38:58 GMT
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Post by duwayne on Nov 9, 2024 12:56:07 GMT
The October UAH global temperature number is in and we are now officially in a 14-month long global temperature decline.
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Post by ratty on Nov 9, 2024 23:06:44 GMT
The October UAH global temperature number is in and we are now officially in a 14-month long global temperature decline. How do you come to that conclusion? Roy is using a new version (6.1) to accommodate satellite drift and says .....  |
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Post by duwayne on Nov 10, 2024 18:56:53 GMT
The October UAH global temperature number is in and we are now officially in a 14-month long global temperature decline. How do you come to that conclusion? Roy is using a new version (6.1) to accommodate satellite drift and says ..... 0.90 0.93 0.91 0.83 0.86 0.93 0.95 1.05 0.90 0.80 0.85 0.88 0.96 0.73
These are the reported values for Roy Spencer's UAH anomalies for the last 14 months. When I calculate the slope using the least squares formula with EXCEL, I get a negative slope. Check me on this since I won't likely be around in 20 years to run this calculation when I believe the slope for 240 months will still be negative.
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With a choice of iced tea or lemonade.