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Post by acidohm on Dec 23, 2023 6:30:45 GMT
Thanks for update Duwayne.
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 23, 2023 8:54:58 GMT
It appears that the sun's magnetic poles have finally reversed and a new poloidal field is beginning to form. The rate of change over the last few months has been exceedingly slow compared to other recent cycles.
Over the past few cycles, when the Dipole rebounds slowly after the reversal, the Dipole maximum ends up being on the low side. And if Svalgaard is right, (a weak solar cycle follows a weak Dipole maximum), then there is growing evidence that Solar Cycle 26 will be a weak one, possibly even weaker than Cycles 24 and 25.
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Post by duwayne on Dec 23, 2023 20:16:55 GMT
It appears that the sun's magnetic poles have finally reversed and a new poloidal field is beginning to form. The rate of change over the last few months has been exceedingly slow compared to other recent cycles.
Over the past few cycles, when the Dipole rebounds slowly after the reversal, the Dipole maximum ends up being on the low side. And if Svalgaard is right, (a weak solar cycle follows a weak Dipole maximum), then there is growing evidence that Solar Cycle 26 will be a weak one, possibly even weaker than Cycles 24 and 25.
The Zharkova charts you linked are from a 2015 article.
Afterward, in 2019, Zharkova published an article which appeared to predict Solar Cycle 25 would be much weaker than predicted in the 2015 article. It also predicts “the upcoming grand solar minimum, similar to Maunder Minimum, which starts in 2020 and will last until 2055.” Since the 13-month smoothed sunspot number maximum for Cycle 25 is already higher than Cycle 24, It’s clear that the grand minimum will not have started in 2020 with Cycle 25.
Zharkov later retracted the 2019 article, presumably because the prediction was turning out to be wrong. Here’s a link to the paper, since retracted.
What follows is only a guess on my part but I think Zharkov may have seen the slow start to the last Polloidal Field Cycle as shown on my chart above as the orange line and in 2019 guessed there would be a very low maximum Dipole predicting a very weak Cycle 25. When the Polloidal field later accelerated to a Dipole Maximum above the previous Cycle, Zharkov retracted the 2019 article and the Cycle 25 Sunspot number prediction was changed to pretty much match Svalgaard’s prediction.
This time my guess is Zharkov will wait a while longer until the upcoming Dipole maximum is more certain and if it is weak, there will be a new Zharkov article which says something like “the upcoming grand solar minimum will begin in 2031 with Cycle 26”.
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Post by neilhamp on Dec 24, 2023 8:34:54 GMT
Had a quick look at your 2019 "retraction" article Duwayne. Difficult to read. Found a later article published in 2020. Much easier to read www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7575229/She repeats the charts shown in MBoys posting above
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 24, 2023 18:29:23 GMT
I find it refreshing when scientists "withdraw" their own publications when data suggest that something may be amiss. Scientists should be the first to undertake serious efforts to falsify their own work. The one-horse salesmen of doom should try it.
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Post by duwayne on Dec 25, 2023 4:28:06 GMT
Had a quick look at your 2019 "retraction" article Duwayne. Difficult to read. Found a later article published in 2020. Much easier to read www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7575229/She repeats the charts shown in MBoys posting above If in 2020 Zharkova stuck with her 2015 prediction that a new "Maunder Minimum" was beginning in 2020, then obviously my guess about Zharkov changing her prediction was wrong.
I checked to learn more about the retraction and it turns out it wasn't her idea. There were complaints about the accuracy of the fluctuations in the sun's orbit that Zharkova was claiming and the publisher on the advice of others retracted the article.
I also found this on her website.
“Between cycle 25 and 11 years of cycle 26 [the least active cycle], and between cycle 26 and 27, will be the coldest period on Earth, and we will feel it through a lack of vegetation,” the researcher and lecturer with a doctorate in astrophysics said. This means that starting after the active period during the ‘Solar Cycle 25,’ from the second half of this decade until the early 2050s, Earth will experience exceptional cold, extreme weather, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions. Zharkova pointed to 2030 as the year when it will seriously begin, warning that the 2030s will be so cold that it will result in a severe food shortage.
This seems to be different than a 2020 start but that's not a key point. It's the claim that a new Maunder Minimum is coming soon with significant negative effects that is the focal point.
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Post by Sigurdur on Dec 25, 2023 15:17:06 GMT
Had a quick look at your 2019 "retraction" article Duwayne. Difficult to read. Found a later article published in 2020. Much easier to read www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7575229/She repeats the charts shown in MBoys posting above If in 2020 Zharkova stuck with her 2015 prediction that a new "Maunder Minimum" was beginning in 2020, then obviously my guess about Zharkov changing her prediction was wrong.
I checked to learn more about the retraction and it turns out it wasn't her idea. There were complaints about the accuracy of the fluctuations in the sun's orbit that Zharkova was claiming and the publisher on the advice of others retracted the article.
I also found this on her website.
“Between cycle 25 and 11 years of cycle 26 [the least active cycle], and between cycle 26 and 27, will be the coldest period on Earth, and we will feel it through a lack of vegetation,” the researcher and lecturer with a doctorate in astrophysics said. This means that starting after the active period during the ‘Solar Cycle 25,’ from the second half of this decade until the early 2050s, Earth will experience exceptional cold, extreme weather, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions. Zharkova pointed to 2030 as the year when it will seriously begin, warning that the 2030s will be so cold that it will result in a severe food shortage.
This seems to be different than a 2020 start but that's not a key point. It's the claim that a new Maunder Minimum is coming soon with significant negative effects that is the focal point.
Hunga Tonga. That eruption changes so many "known" items. It was a gift to climate alarmists. H2O vapor continues to be by far the major greenhouse gas. Back of envelope, a 15% increase in H2O in strat, not to mention the mesophere. H2O, the wonder fluid. Opaque to SW, a true shade to LW. H2O, the wonder fluid. Combines with almost anything. Ozone, what ozone? Etc. Honga Tonga tail is going to be a long one.
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 25, 2023 15:55:49 GMT
So ... if Dr Zarkova is correct, it should become increasingly obvious over the next 7 to 10 years (now till the end of SC25 ... and the run-up to the first peak of solar cycle 26).
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Post by duwayne on Feb 17, 2024 2:00:50 GMT
We have liftoff! The Dipole is on the rise. There's still a long way to go but it's looking like Cycle 26 will have some life.
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Post by acidohm on Mar 1, 2024 18:14:11 GMT
Just to add some subtext and as evidence that this cycle has peaked/will not have double peak.
Taken from Solen.
For solar cycle 24 the northern polar field changed polarity first in June 2012, then weakened and was near neutral in April 2014. The southern polar field reversed in July 2013. During the previous similar polarity reversal in 1989-1991 the northern polar field reversed 14 months prior to the southern polar field reversal. The northern polar field peaked in September 2019 while the southern polar field reached its peak in November 2015.
The strength of the polar fields at their peak during cycle 24 indicated that solar cycle 25 could reach a magnitude somewhere between those of cycles 23 and 24. The northern polar field reversed polarity the first time in April 2023 while the southern polar field reversed in October 2023 and the total field in November 2023. The SC25 solar max may already be in the past as the 365-day smoothed solar flux peaked on June 27, 2023.
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Post by missouriboy on Mar 1, 2024 20:23:04 GMT
Just to add some subtext and as evidence that this cycle has peaked/will not have double peak. Taken from Solen. For solar cycle 24 the northern polar field changed polarity first in June 2012, then weakened and was near neutral in April 2014. The southern polar field reversed in July 2013. During the previous similar polarity reversal in 1989-1991 the northern polar field reversed 14 months prior to the southern polar field reversal. The northern polar field peaked in September 2019 while the southern polar field reached its peak in November 2015. The strength of the polar fields at their peak during cycle 24 indicated that solar cycle 25 could reach a magnitude somewhere between those of cycles 23 and 24. The northern polar field reversed polarity the first time in April 2023 while the southern polar field reversed in October 2023 and the total field in November 2023. The SC25 solar max may already be in the past as the 365-day smoothed solar flux peaked on June 27, 2023. Here is the Hemispheric time series. Interesting changes in which hemisphere leads from time to time. Also interesting to observe changes in other measures that occur at 3 general change periods" _1880-1920 and now again from about 2008. Logic will return to perspective in the not so distant future. There is nothing that fails like failure. Abject. No doubt about it. It's a-comin. It will be leaking policats at every seam. Hats off to those that have kept the records these many years. Night Fall - Azimov
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Post by acidohm on Mar 1, 2024 20:39:34 GMT
Scanning media on cycle 25 progress, there's plenty out there commenting that prior predictions of a 2025 peak are too late. These articles revise solar max to early/mid 2024, eg, www.sciencealert.com/the-suns-rampant-activity-is-likely-to-peak-really-really-soon-studyLooking at your charts Missouriboy, it's cycle 22 that potentially upsets anything I've said about no double peak or cycle peak being last year....that one did have synchronous hemispheres until later in the cycle. Anyhoo....its been 18 months, just a few more to go
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Post by missouriboy on Mar 1, 2024 21:45:48 GMT
Scanning media on cycle 25 progress, there's plenty out there commenting that prior predictions of a 2025 peak are too late. These articles revise solar max to early/mid 2024, eg, www.sciencealert.com/the-suns-rampant-activity-is-likely-to-peak-really-really-soon-studyLooking at your charts Missouriboy, it's cycle 22 that potentially upsets anything I've said about no double peak or cycle peak being last year....that one did have synchronous hemispheres until later in the cycle. Anyhoo....its been 18 months, just a few more to go Seems to be a flip from time to time. North pole leads for a while ... then south pole. South pole led into cycle 19. Then it shifted at SC20 ... and the north polar field took over.
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