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Post by phydeaux2363 on Nov 30, 2022 22:04:23 GMT
The European model is starting to see it, the GFS not so much.
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 1, 2022 13:05:38 GMT
Well.....once the BBC add it to their forecast you know the chances are high, they do not say anything that might put egg on their faces (meteorolically wise anyway) All the Big 3-Letter Beasts.  |
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 1, 2022 17:46:22 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Dec 1, 2022 20:19:36 GMT
The European model is starting to see it, the GFS not so much. Gfs currently at best, 3rd in terms of accuracy. That said....take another look at it! |
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Post by acidohm on Dec 3, 2022 6:57:04 GMT
Gfs for 12/10 (I've done date incorrectly to suit our American friends 😉)  Everything currently depends on how the western depression interacts with the block. A true block will repel the depression completely, or send it south of the English channel where it functions as a moisture provider to the cold and delivers snow. If it pushes through the block, the usual weather patterns win and cold will be short lived. This is what usually happens. We will see. Gfs is saying currently, after 5 days from above, depression is repelled. However this is not a reliable time frame.  Should note at one point that depression is forecast to have a central pressure of approx 955 or so....pretty deep depression that! |
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Post by acidohm on Dec 3, 2022 8:27:23 GMT
And just for comparison....ECM shunts that low south. 2 essentially opposite outcomes from 2 different models, same result overall. This is why forecasting is such a headache!  |
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Post by acidohm on Dec 3, 2022 11:14:11 GMT
And now, GFS puts the depression into UK. So....no clue what will happen in a week, pretty much anything!  |
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 3, 2022 18:22:21 GMT
We're rooting for ya Acid.  |
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Post by nonentropic on Dec 3, 2022 21:48:41 GMT
In my mind a very harsh winter will produce the best outcome. The ship can at this time still be steered out but in 5 years that option may be gone.
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Post by blustnmtn on Dec 3, 2022 22:49:49 GMT
In my mind a very harsh winter will produce the best outcome. The ship can at this time still be steered out but in 5 years that option may be gone. Only if the serfs revolt. A bad winter or a decade of bad winter will simply be evidence that “Climate Change” is real and the result of human wrong doing. They have a goal, they’ve concocted a religious movement to support it and they are not backing down. |
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Post by ratty on Dec 3, 2022 23:31:51 GMT
In my mind a very harsh winter will produce the best outcome. The ship can at this time still be steered out but in 5 years that option may be gone. Only if the serfs revolt. A bad winter or a decade of bad winter will simply be evidence that “Climate Change” is real and the result of human wrong doing. They have a goal, they’ve concocted a religious movement to support it and they are not backing down. Unfortunately, that's the way I see it too. We've fought the good fight - reason against faith - and have lost.  |
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 4, 2022 3:41:27 GMT
Only if the serfs revolt. A bad winter or a decade of bad winter will simply be evidence that “Climate Change” is real and the result of human wrong doing. They have a goal, they’ve concocted a religious movement to support it and they are not backing down. Unfortunately, that's the way I see it too. We've fought the good fight - reason against faith - and have lost. I refuse to accept anything close to defeat. Stalingrad may soon be in their rear view mirror. They're going to have to pull a lot more entrails out of Charles Oscar's vanishing bag of encouragement for the true believers. The marginal faithful (the redeemables) will flee that dog in the face of toxic evidence and ridicule. Many of their priests are already backing off the really large numbers. Not only are they going to get their asses kicked, they are going to be laughed at during the kicking. Beaten dogs will retreat to the safety of silence and absolution. I expect Herr Mann to snarl to the bitter end. Did I leave anything out?  |
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Post by ratty on Dec 4, 2022 4:29:13 GMT
OK. I'm back in.
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Post by acidohm on Dec 8, 2022 17:39:39 GMT
Well, I've broken out the sheepskin, a coat I'll never sell 😉
-5°c last night, things progressing nicely for a coldie like myself!
That low is affecting us later then forecast prior. Looking like 15th and southerly track.
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 8, 2022 22:37:17 GMT
Well, I've broken out the sheepskin, a coat I'll never sell 😉 -5°c last night, things progressing nicely for a coldie like myself! That low is affecting us later then forecast prior. Looking like 15th and southerly track. About 5C here right now (5PM). What happened to your warm NAD heating? |
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