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Post by acidohm on Jun 22, 2024 20:19:15 GMT
Russias quantities of 152mm artilliary are diminishing.
Either lack of shells or running out of barrels...
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Post by acidohm on Jun 22, 2024 20:23:09 GMT
Apparently Serbia, a Russian sycophant, has been supplying Ukraine with shells.
Guess they like money.
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Post by Sigurdur on Jun 24, 2024 3:17:35 GMT
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Post by glennkoks on Jun 24, 2024 21:48:55 GMT
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Jun 25, 2024 23:32:10 GMT
And Russia has been attacking Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure from sites within Russia, which heretofore have been protected from Ukrainian attacks by Western restrictions on the use of Western weapons. Those restrictions have now been more or less lifted, and the Ukrainians are using Storm Shadow, HIMARS and ATCAMS to strike at Russian bases in Russia. Upside, Russia tires of this war more quickly and some sort of peace is achieved. Downside is the Russians lose patience with the West keeping Ukraine's military afloat and decide to attack the West and turn the proxy war into a real war. My money's on the first scenario, but as the title of my autobiography makes clear, "Well That Didn't Work"
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Post by nonentropic on Jun 26, 2024 4:08:28 GMT
One upside of the last few years is that both sides understand their overestimation of their initial military capability.
So I like Phy's option 1 and agree that is more likely.
Ultimately all wars are ugly and who dies is important and in my view the middle class will decide when this stops not the poor distally sourced canon fodder now on the front line. A few thousand women and children blown to pieces is a reasonable trade for a tenth of million hapless conscripted troops being squeezed through a meat grinder.
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Post by ratty on Jun 26, 2024 5:46:35 GMT
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Jun 26, 2024 15:11:45 GMT
It probably would have made me more money if I'd actually written down the anecdotes!
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 26, 2024 16:40:16 GMT
One upside of the last few years is that both sides understand their overestimation of their initial military capability. So I like Phy's option 1 and agree that is more likely. Ultimately all wars are ugly and who dies is important and in my view the middle class will decide when this stops not the poor distally sourced canon fodder now on the front line. A few thousand women and children blown to pieces is a reasonable trade for a tenth of million hapless conscripted troops being squeezed through a meat grinder. The distally sourced canon fodder salute you Sir! Those that did not flee seem to have accepted their fate ... so far. Much of "the fodder" is said to come from ethnic areas outside the Russian ethnic-political core. A similar(?) situation resulted in a revolt of the army in 1917. The Russian AND Ukrainian demographic structures (and related socio-economic) are going to suffer from this for a long time.
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Post by acidohm on Jun 26, 2024 16:43:11 GMT
Point 1, atacms are really expensive in money and as an asset, they could help the war effort by hitting a military target.
Point 2, once launched, counter battery renders launch site dangerous and relocation is necessary during which time system can't fire at opportune targets.
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 27, 2024 11:23:42 GMT
The sparkly high-tech toys continue to disappear.
AND THIS ... @aliceinwonderlandzz 2 days ago Also critically importatnt! There was an unfortunate smoking accident at one of Russia's most sensitive chip making facilities outside Moscow. This facility manufactures chips for all their missiles and aircraft. Without them they become ugly statues. At last look three of the floors of the building were engulfed in flame and numerous engineers were trapped on the upper floors. Since most of the equipment is irreplacable you can assume Russian missile production and aircraft production is done for the remainder of this war.
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Post by justme on Jun 27, 2024 23:22:09 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Jun 28, 2024 4:14:35 GMT
Here is his Settlement Plan. Just for context.
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Post by acidohm on Jul 1, 2024 17:45:44 GMT
Video analysing artilliary numbers based on satellite imagery of Russian storage bases.
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Post by acidohm on Jul 7, 2024 18:11:49 GMT
Assume things aren't going Razzia's way else "you know who" would be posting more.....
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