The State of Climate Science

[Sigurdur]

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow, elongated, synoptic jets of water vapor that play important roles in the global water cycle. The continually developing Tracking Atmospheric Rivers Globally as Elongated Targets (tARget) algorithm identifies AR objects at individual time steps based on thresholding integrated water vapor transport (IVT) and other requirements, and tracks each AR object in time and space. Building on previous versions of tARget, this paper discusses further refinements to the algorithm to better handle ARs in tropical and polar areas, as well as “zonal” ARs which the previous versions of the algorithm were not designed to capture. This further regionally refined algorithm is applied to the ERA5 reanalysis over 1940–2023 at 6 h intervals and a 0.25° × 0.25° horizontal resolution. The AR detection results are evaluated in terms of key AR characteristics. We anticipate this regionally refined global AR database will aid further understanding of ARs such as AR process studies, evaluation of AR simulations and predictions, and assessment of climate change impacts on ARs.

www.nature.com/articles/s41597-024-03258-4

[missouriboy]

Jul 16, 2024 16:05:25 GMT Sigurdur said:

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow, elongated, synoptic jets of water vapor that play important roles in the global water cycle. The continually developing Tracking Atmospheric Rivers Globally as Elongated Targets (tARget) algorithm identifies AR objects at individual time steps based on thresholding integrated water vapor transport (IVT) and other requirements, and tracks each AR object in time and space. Building on previous versions of tARget, this paper discusses further refinements to the algorithm to better handle ARs in tropical and polar areas, as well as “zonal” ARs which the previous versions of the algorithm were not designed to capture. This further regionally refined algorithm is applied to the ERA5 reanalysis over 1940–2023 at 6 h intervals and a 0.25° × 0.25° horizontal resolution. The AR detection results are evaluated in terms of key AR characteristics. We anticipate this regionally refined global AR database will aid further understanding of ARs such as AR process studies, evaluation of AR simulations and predictions, and assessment of climate change impacts on ARs.

www.nature.com/articles/s41597-024-03258-4

This is huge.  What a data base.  At 0.25 degree resolution and 6 hour repetition intervals I could probably run it on my laptop.  Might have to do some front end mask elimination to make the processing faster.  Physical data scientists take a bow to the boys and girls that put this one together.  Charles Oscar!  Your days are numbered.  Smell the coffee ... bend over and surrender.

I can envision a physical geography class with students syphoning data into and out of spatial matrixes ... testing  hypotheses across the oceans and the atmosphere.  . 

[ratty]

Not just climate science ...

[Sigurdur]

www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0921818124000420

Widespread increase in plant transpiration driven by global greening

[nonentropic]

Desperate to paint a negative picture about this wonderful outcome. Next will come that oceans are being stripped of nutrients by a surge in Phytoplankton growth from CO2 emissions.

[Sigurdur]

www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2999

Wildfires are an important component of terrestrial ecosystem ecology but also a major natural hazard to societies, and their frequency and spatial distribution must be better understood1. At a given location, risk from wildfire is associated with the annual fraction of burned area, which is expected to increase in response to climate warming1,2,3. Until recently,

[ratty]

Willis looks at the science from a different perspective ....

The Return On Your Investment

Among my other sins, I have made money as an accountant for several businesses and non-profits plus two of my own businesses, as a tax preparer, and as the Chief Financial Officer for a company with $40 million in annual sales. So I often think in terms of things like Return On Investment (ROI) and Energy Return On Investment (EROI). From that excellent source:

Energy Return on Investment (EROI) is a ratio for describing a measure of energy produced in relation to the energy used to create it. For instance the ratio would illustrate how much energy is used to locate, extract, deliver, and refine crude oil relative to how much useable energy is created.

Today I realized I could create a similar ratio to analyze the climate, a ratio which I’ve called “WROI” for “Watts Return On Investment”. It is defined as the value at the surface of the earth of:

Downwelling thermal radiation from the atmosphere divided by upwelling thermal radiation from the surface

Conceptually, it works like this. Depending on its temperature, at each location the surface emits a certain amount of upwelling thermal radiation. That’s the investment, measured in watts per square meter of surface. (W/m2)

Some percentage of that upwelling thermal radiation is absorbed by the atmosphere, and some percentage of that returns to the surface as downwelling thermal radiation. That’s the return, again in W/m2.

And Watts Return On Investment (WROI) is the ratio of those two. It’s the downwelling thermal radiation as a percentage of the upwelling surface thermal radiation.

Etc ...

[douglavers]

DMI seem to have stopped updating their Arctic Temperature website, stopping on 15th July. ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Looking at the Arctic Temperature loop, it looks way below normal to my amateur eyes, as you progress through August.

www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=nhem&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=tmp2&HH=3&ZOOM=0&WMO=&ARCHIV=0&LOOP=1&RES=0

This follows my disrespectfull comments on Greenland Surface Mass Balance!!!

[ratty]

Aug 5, 2024 4:39:33 GMT douglavers said:

DMI seem to have stopped updating their Arctic Temperature website, stopping on 15th July. ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Looking at the Arctic Temperature loop, it looks way below normal to my amateur eyes, as you progress through August.

www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=nhem&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=tmp2&HH=3&ZOOM=0&WMO=&ARCHIV=0&LOOP=1&RES=0

This follows my disrespectfull comments on Greenland Surface Mass Balance!!!

What disrespectful comments?

[phydeaux2363]

Aug 5, 2024 4:39:33 GMT douglavers said:

DMI seem to have stopped updating their Arctic Temperature website, stopping on 15th July. ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Looking at the Arctic Temperature loop, it looks way below normal to my amateur eyes, as you progress through August.

www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=nhem&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=tmp2&HH=3&ZOOM=0&WMO=&ARCHIV=0&LOOP=1&RES=0

This follows my disrespectfull comments on Greenland Surface Mass Balance!!!

I just looked at DMI.  It appears to be up to date.

[ratty]

Everything about this shows the pathetic decay of Western science. 😢

The Shocking Complicity of Academia and the Media in Pushing A Climate Narrative by Refusing to See

What is demonstrated here is that it is not only the hype that perpetuates the climate narrative as told by academics and the mainstream media, but, much more importantly, what is not said, what the authors refuse to see. Pardon my own hype, but this is the shocking complicity of those writing up our science in pushing a climate narrative, a narrative that is the foundation of trillions in corporatist wealth at the expense of energy security.

[Sigurdur]

[douglavers]

ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Arctic temperatures have stopped falling pro tem.

I assume that neans a lot of cold air has gone somewhere else, replaced with warmer.

[ratty]

Nov 1, 2024 2:29:11 GMT douglavers said:

ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Arctic temperatures have stopped falling pro tem.

I assume that means a lot of cold air has gone somewhere else, replaced with warmer.

It's a little unusual.

[duwayne]

Nov 1, 2024 2:29:11 GMT douglavers said:

ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Arctic temperatures have stopped falling pro tem.

I assume that neans a lot of cold air has gone somewhere else, replaced with warmer.

Could it be an extended heavy cloud cover?