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Post by missouriboy on Apr 26, 2024 3:47:15 GMT
A good conversation here with Former Advisor to President Reagan and Professor of Economics, Steve Hanke.
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Post by missouriboy on May 1, 2024 0:17:58 GMT
Looking decicedly downish.
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Post by duwayne on May 3, 2024 14:06:13 GMT
Back in February I posted here that I had sold half my equity holdings (SPY) at 517. Today I bought half of that back at 510. I did make a little bit of money ($10 dollars/share) on that trade plus some money market interest (5.3% annual) on the temporarily idle cash. I'm now at 75% of my standard equity holding.
I still believe there will be a 10% decline from the S&P 500 high this year, but I'm concerned that the high could be higher than the current high.
Normally I do not try to trade the 10% declines and maybe I'll relearn why I don't do that on the 25% of cash (Money market at 5.3%) that I currently don't have invested in stock.
Again, I'm not making any recommendations for others. I post this for my own benefit to make sure I'm thinking clearly.
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Post by walnut on May 3, 2024 16:04:33 GMT
Looking decicedly downish.
It has been a little surreal to keep hearing that Biden's economy is strong, but I'm kinda getting used. To it. And for some reason our living room light gets dim just after dinner every night, and we thought we could hear someone up in the attic?
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Post by missouriboy on May 3, 2024 16:32:17 GMT
Looking decicedly downish.
It has been a little surreal to keep hearing that Biden's economy is strong, but I'm kinda getting used. To it. And for some reason our living room light gets dim just after dinner every night, and we thought we could hear someone up in the attic? That guy in the red suit won't to passing gifts your way. You've got the wrong party badge.
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Post by duwayne on May 9, 2024 15:44:06 GMT
Back in February I posted here that I had sold half my equity holdings (SPY) at 517. Today I bought half of that back at 510. I did make a little bit of money ($10 dollars/share) on that trade plus some money market interest (5.3% annual) on the temporarily idle cash. I'm now at 75% of my standard equity holding.
I still believe there will be a 10% decline from the S&P 500 high this year, but I'm concerned that the high could be higher than the current high.
Normally I do not try to trade the 10% declines and maybe I'll relearn why I don't do that on the 25% of cash (Money market at 5.3%) that I currently don't have invested in stock.
Again, I'm not making any recommendations for others. I post this for my own benefit to make sure I'm thinking clearly.
I bought enough SPY at the opening today to return me back to my "standard" stock level. My overall sale and rebuy venture was a bit better than breakeven (+1%). I'm even more convinced that while my skill level (luck?) has been really good on the large moves, I'm not so adept at trading short term moves.
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Post by missouriboy on May 10, 2024 0:11:01 GMT
A Data Guy on the economic indicators. Don't look good.
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Post by walnut on May 10, 2024 4:37:22 GMT
I'll say again, the recession in construction appears really bad from my point of view. As you can see on the chart, for any 3 month move, this makes covid 2020 look like a tiny blip, and the drop so far is worse than 2009, the great recession. And I think that April and so far May are even worse. I'd guess it will be years before things recover. This chart is seasonally adjusted, but this is a strange time of the year for a collapse like this. fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTS2300JOL
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Post by code on May 10, 2024 15:06:06 GMT
I'll say again, the recession in construction appears really bad from my point of view. As you can see on the chart, for any 3 month move, this makes covid 2020 look like a tiny blip, and the drop so far is worse than 2009, the great recession. And I think that April and so far May are even worse. I'd guess it will be years before things recover. This chart is seasonally adjusted, but this is a strange time of the year for a collapse like this. fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTS2300JOLYeah, but when I step back it all looks fussy, but I'm nearsighted and don't have my glasses on so maybe that? What exactly are you? A small dog, ferret? Weasel?
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Post by walnut on May 10, 2024 16:54:21 GMT
I noticed that chart doesn't really display well on my android phone. Looks fine on my desktop monitor.
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Post by missouriboy on May 10, 2024 19:45:03 GMT
I fear that this cycle is not going to be very pleasant for any number of people.
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Post by code on May 11, 2024 0:59:28 GMT
I noticed that chart doesn't really display well on my android phone. Looks fine on my desktop monitor. I was joking...
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Post by walnut on May 11, 2024 2:12:32 GMT
Well, it was a thing, the chart is almost unreadable on my phone. I thought maybe you had that issue.
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Post by missouriboy on May 11, 2024 14:57:21 GMT
I'll say again, the recession in construction appears really bad from my point of view. As you can see on the chart, for any 3 month move, this makes covid 2020 look like a tiny blip, and the drop so far is worse than 2009, the great recession. And I think that April and so far May are even worse. I'd guess it will be years before things recover. This chart is seasonally adjusted, but this is a strange time of the year for a collapse like this. fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTS2300JOLThe Democrats and the Corrupt Class took a middling-level contagion (assisted), turned it into an engineered emergency, and threw the entire remaining wealth of the Federal Government at it. In effect, we have "stolen and eaten the seed corn". There is nothing left to plant. And the crooks (traitors) are scurrying off to hide amongst the loot ... while the population pays the price of their greed and its own stupidity. Watch the bottom fall out of the Nanny State. Follow that construction index (and manufacturing index). Where does that puppy hit the bottom? The Fourth Turning bargain basement special. I sincerely hope to be wrong. We are no longer a society where a sizeable portion of the population lives on their own farm and manufactures their own wealth. We live on semi-tidy little urban lots and depend on others to employ us ... from the plumber to the teacher. Compare the recent male migrants looting the big cities. Like Huns in Hungary. They came for the promised land, and they intend to have it. It has been the "Historical Way" and they are pursuing it. Will the local population fight back? Perhaps this allegory is over-contrived. But it sure seems to be happening.
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Post by walnut on May 11, 2024 15:17:13 GMT
I'll say again, the recession in construction appears really bad from my point of view. As you can see on the chart, for any 3 month move, this makes covid 2020 look like a tiny blip, and the drop so far is worse than 2009, the great recession. And I think that April and so far May are even worse. I'd guess it will be years before things recover. This chart is seasonally adjusted, but this is a strange time of the year for a collapse like this. fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTS2300JOLThe Democrats and the Corrupt Class took a middling-level contagion (assisted), turned it into an engineered emergency, and threw the entire remaining wealth of the Federal Government at it. In effect, we have "stolen and eaten the seed corn". There is nothing left to plant. And the crooks (traitors) are scurrying off to hide amongst the loot ... while the population pays the price of their greed and its own stupidity. Watch the bottom fall out of the Nanny State. Follow that construction index (and manufacturing index). Where does that puppy hit the bottom? The Fourth Turning bargain basement special. I sincerely hope to be wrong. We are no longer a society where a sizeable portion of the population lives on their own farm and manufactures their own wealth. We live on semi-tidy little urban lots and depend on others to employ us ... from the plumber to the teacher. Compare the recent male migrants looting the big cities. Like Huns in Hungary. They came for the promised land, and they intend to have it. It has been the "Historical Way" and they are pursuing it. Will the local population fight back? Perhaps this allegory is over-contrived. But it sure seems to be happening. I think you are right on the money, we have squandered our inheritance. You can't live on the principal, you live on some of the interest and save the rest. We are not a vital, growing race of people, I guess I wish the new occupants well. I hope they learned something by watching our failures.
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