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Post by duwayne on Jul 14, 2021 13:59:51 GMT
The herd immunity level is dependent on the R0. With an R0 of 5 the Herd immunity level is now in the 90's. the good news is the death rate is much lower so the big question is what will the death's per day grow to in the UK and then the US. The other bit of good news is, as poor as the vaccine is as a vaccine it does reduce severity, well that's a win anyway. Is R0 a fixed number at 5? If it isn't why are numbers given at an early stage in the pandemic? Does this cause people to avoid getting vaccinated in the hope they will somehow become immune via herd immunity?
You say "as poor as the vaccine is as a vaccine". What do you mean by that?
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Post by duwayne on Jul 14, 2021 14:15:20 GMT
The UK has quickly climbed back up to 20,000 new COVID cases per day and they are rising fast,
And how many of those people are actually sick? That's a good question. If Nonentropic is right, a high percentage of non-vaccinated people are going to get COVID. With the impact of the Indian variant the UK deaths have tripled, albeit from a very low number. Even if an individual doesn't get sick, at a R0 of 5, they will likely pass it on.
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Post by nonentropic on Jul 14, 2021 20:10:32 GMT
The vaccine is more akin to the flu vaccine than say the smallpox vaccine. The Virus is a fast moving target and you can get a much reduced impact infection this is good.
the R0 is a fixed number based on a set of social parameters within a naive population. Changes in behavior vaccination level and historical infection change the actual infection ratio outcome. So when does the R0 apparent drop below 1.
I live in a country that thinks they can maintain elimination seldom do you see fools at this level all in one country.
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Post by birder on Jul 14, 2021 21:28:15 GMT
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Post by Sigurdur on Jul 14, 2021 22:49:44 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 15, 2021 0:19:05 GMT
Ground Zero - Immunity by Immersion Almost half of this capital city's population may have contracted Covid-19, survey findsNearly half of Jakarta's residents may have contracted Covid-19, according to a health survey -- more than 12 times the number of cases officially recorded in the Indonesian capital at the time when the research was carried out. The survey, published July 10, tested for coronavirus antibodies in the blood of about 5,000 people across the city from March 15-31. The results showed 44.5% of those tested had antibodies, indicating they had been infected with Covid-19. www.cnn.com/2021/07/13/asia/indonesia-antibody-study-covid-intl-hnk-scli/index.html
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Post by gridley on Jul 15, 2021 11:51:49 GMT
And how many of those people are actually sick? That's a good question. If Nonentropic is right, a high percentage of non-vaccinated people are going to get COVID. With the impact of the Indian variant the UK deaths have tripled, albeit from a very low number. Even if an individual doesn't get sick, at a R0 of 5, they will likely pass it on. You're assuming an asymptomatic person can pass on the virus.
You're also assuming deaths reported as caused by the "Indian variant" are actually caused by COVID-19. Do we need to bring up the 'hit by a car, listed as died of COVID-19' cases again?
You're assuming that people who haven't been reported as cases haven't had the virus.
If one person dies one day, and three die the next, deaths have tripled. Saying "deaths have tripled" is nothing but a scare tactic.
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Post by gridley on Jul 15, 2021 12:04:55 GMT
Ground Zero - Immunity by Immersion Almost half of this capital city's population may have contracted Covid-19, survey findsNearly half of Jakarta's residents may have contracted Covid-19, according to a health survey -- more than 12 times the number of cases officially recorded in the Indonesian capital at the time when the research was carried out. The survey, published July 10, tested for coronavirus antibodies in the blood of about 5,000 people across the city from March 15-31. The results showed 44.5% of those tested had antibodies, indicating they had been infected with Covid-19. www.cnn.com/2021/07/13/asia/indonesia-antibody-study-covid-intl-hnk-scli/index.htmlWhich, BTW, would indicate that the CFR is somewhere around 1/12 of what was being reported.
I'm quite pleased to see this - over a year after I first started asking for data on randomized testing, finally we get something! CNN being CNN, they try to spin it for maximum scare value, but this is actually really good news.
Consider the US - per CDC as of today ( covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home ), about 10% of the US population have had COVID-19, with a CFR of about 1.8%. If 40% of the population have actually had it that would make the CFR around 0.45%.
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 15, 2021 13:33:42 GMT
Ground Zero - Immunity by Immersion Almost half of this capital city's population may have contracted Covid-19, survey findsNearly half of Jakarta's residents may have contracted Covid-19, according to a health survey -- more than 12 times the number of cases officially recorded in the Indonesian capital at the time when the research was carried out. The survey, published July 10, tested for coronavirus antibodies in the blood of about 5,000 people across the city from March 15-31. The results showed 44.5% of those tested had antibodies, indicating they had been infected with Covid-19. www.cnn.com/2021/07/13/asia/indonesia-antibody-study-covid-intl-hnk-scli/index.htmlWhich, BTW, would indicate that the CFR is somewhere around 1/12 of what was being reported.
I'm quite pleased to see this - over a year after I first started asking for data on randomized testing, finally we get something! CNN being CNN, they try to spin it for maximum scare value, but this is actually really good news.
Consider the US - per CDC as of today ( covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home ), about 10% of the US population have had COVID-19, with a CFR of about 1.8%. If 40% of the population have actually had it that would make the CFR around 0.45%. I don't believe for a moment that only 10% of the US population has been infected. With antibody testing suppressed (nearly impossible to find) there will be no larger-picture estimates. Hard to keep up a skeer if most everybody you know has had it. Like comparing minor scars after a battle. The $25 solution (per sample) just will not do. Hats off to the Jakarta few that got this done. Where are our brave boys?
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Post by walnut on Jul 15, 2021 14:20:47 GMT
Which, BTW, would indicate that the CFR is somewhere around 1/12 of what was being reported.
I'm quite pleased to see this - over a year after I first started asking for data on randomized testing, finally we get something! CNN being CNN, they try to spin it for maximum scare value, but this is actually really good news.
Consider the US - per CDC as of today ( covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home ), about 10% of the US population have had COVID-19, with a CFR of about 1.8%. If 40% of the population have actually had it that would make the CFR around 0.45%. I don't believe for a moment that only 10% of the US population has been infected. With antibody testing suppressed (nearly impossible to find) there will be no larger-picture estimates. Hard to keep up a skeer if most everybody you know has had it. Like comparing minor scars after a battle. The $25 solution (per sample) just will not do. Hats off to the Jakarta few that got this done. Where are our brave boys? Indonesia briefly had good leadership, but the current president and Jakarta mayor are more inclined to go the easy path and use the "pandemic" as a means to safeguard their power with curfews, etc. as has happened in countries rich and poor all over the globe.
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 15, 2021 18:34:37 GMT
I don't believe for a moment that only 10% of the US population has been infected. With antibody testing suppressed (nearly impossible to find) there will be no larger-picture estimates. Hard to keep up a skeer if most everybody you know has had it. Like comparing minor scars after a battle. The $25 solution (per sample) just will not do. Hats off to the Jakarta few that got this done. Where are our brave boys? Indonesia briefly had good leadership, but the current president and Jakarta mayor are more inclined to go the easy path and use the "pandemic" as a means to safeguard their power with curfews, etc. as has happened in countries rich and poor all over the globe. The counterattack is building. A repeat of "Let them eat cake!" may beget a similar result. Spain's Ibex35 index also fell sharply, taking its drop from this time last month to the worst in Europe at more than 7% as regional governments began to re-impose curfews and restrictions against the Delta-wave of Covid.
"Lockdown was absolutely essential, saving 450,000 lives," said the national government of Socialist Workers' Party chief Pedro Sánchez today, responding to Wednesday's court ruling that 'confinement' was unconstitutional, allowing people fined for breaking those rules to seek a refund.
Protests against so-called Covid passports hit yesterday's Bastille Day celebrations in Paris and saw 5,000 people rally in the center of Athens shouting "Take your vaccines and get out of here!" outside the Greek Parliament.
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Post by Sigurdur on Jul 15, 2021 22:55:25 GMT
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Post by duwayne on Jul 16, 2021 13:53:55 GMT
That's a good question. If Nonentropic is right, a high percentage of non-vaccinated people are going to get COVID. With the impact of the Indian variant the UK deaths have tripled, albeit from a very low number. Even if an individual doesn't get sick, at a R0 of 5, they will likely pass it on. You're assuming an asymptomatic person can pass on the virus.
You're also assuming deaths reported as caused by the "Indian variant" are actually caused by COVID-19. Do we need to bring up the 'hit by a car, listed as died of COVID-19' cases again?
You're assuming that people who haven't been reported as cases haven't had the virus.
If one person dies one day, and three die the next, deaths have tripled. Saying "deaths have tripled" is nothing but a scare tactic.
With respect to what I assume, you got 1 out of 3 right. Why post things that are wrong?
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Post by duwayne on Jul 16, 2021 14:16:34 GMT
Which, BTW, would indicate that the CFR is somewhere around 1/12 of what was being reported.
I'm quite pleased to see this - over a year after I first started asking for data on randomized testing, finally we get something! CNN being CNN, they try to spin it for maximum scare value, but this is actually really good news.
Consider the US - per CDC as of today ( covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home ), about 10% of the US population have had COVID-19, with a CFR of about 1.8%. If 40% of the population have actually had it that would make the CFR around 0.45%. I don't believe for a moment that only 10% of the US population has been infected. With antibody testing suppressed (nearly impossible to find) there will be no larger-picture estimates. Hard to keep up a skeer if most everybody you know has had it. Like comparing minor scars after a battle. The $25 solution (per sample) just will not do. Hats off to the Jakarta few that got this done. Where are our brave boys? The CDC publishes estimates of the total people infected with COVID in the US but it doesn't get much publicity. As I recall, their last number was something like 33%. I distinctly remember a number of 83 million in the first quarter which would be about 25%.
Jakarta is one of the most densely populated cities in the world. Social distancing isn't easy. Vaccination rate is a factor. I'd expect their number to be higher than the average across the cities and the lower populated areas in the US.
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Post by Sigurdur on Jul 17, 2021 1:23:15 GMT
Beginning May 1, 2021, CDC transitioned from monitoring all reported COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infections to investigating only those among patients who are hospitalized or die, thereby focusing on the cases of highest clinical and public health significance. CDC will continue to lead studies in multiple U.S. sites to evaluate vaccine effectiveness and collect information on all COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infections regardless of clinical status. Additional information and resources to help public health departments and laboratories investigate and report COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough cases are available at www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html. www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7021e3.htm
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